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Erdogan is an opportunist, but he is not going to turn to the West

2023-08-14 14:26:00, Blog Sinan Ciddi

Erdogan is an opportunist, but he is not going to turn to the West

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President of Turkey

Turkish voters re-elected Recep Tayyip Erdogan for a third 5-year term as president in May. In the weeks that followed, some analysts began to question whether this is the moment when Erdogan will begin to shift Turkish foreign policy back toward its traditional Western orientation.

Since an attempted coup in 2016 that threatened to force Erdogan from power, Turkey's veteran leader has gradually eroded all of the country's credentials as a strong member of the Western alliance. And this is because Erdogan accused the West of supporting the coup.

The history of his anti-Western approach is old, but it has been particularly evident during the NATO expansion process to include Sweden and Finland. Turkey spent the last year creating even more obstacles to prevent the 2 Scandinavian countries from joining.

While after a few months it ratified Finland's request, Sweden is still left waiting.

Many officials in NATO, but also in the US government, question Erdogan's commitment to the West. Some of them think that Erdogan's attitude was dictated by the situation.

His game was about trying to get re-elected as president, and once that happened, the obstacles would be removed. But this perspective is wrong. The initial narrative went something like this: in the run-up to the election, Erdogan needed to give Turkish voters a reason to re-elect him.

The Turkish economy was plagued by high inflation and a devalued national currency. These chronic problems were joined by a series of devastating earthquakes in early 2023. All of Erdogan's fame is based on strong economic growth. In its absence, he used foreign policy to secure public support.

A tough stance in the Eastern Mediterranean brought even tougher rhetoric about the occupation of the Greek islands and their return to Turkey by force. The threat of annexation of Northern Cyprus was further strengthened by his opposition to NATO expansion.

What's worse, Ankara has refused to participate in international sanctions against Russia, as there is plenty of evidence that Ankara is profiting quite a bit from the war in Ukraine. On the other hand, Erdogan has continued to undermine the rule of law in the country.

Turkey does not implement the binding rulings of the European Court of Human Rights, which has ordered the release of political prisoners, such as philanthropist and human rights activist Osman Kavala, among many others. You may ask what this has to do with gaining public support.

The explanation is simple: the Turkish public admires Erdogan's aggressive stance on the world stage. The more Erdogan verbally attacks the West, threatens his neighbors and pursues what he calls an independent foreign policy, the prouder Turkish voters feel.

This behavior reflects distaste for decades of close ties with the West, which many Turks believe have undermined Turkey's prestige and its rightful place on the global stage as a major power.

The blocking of Turkey's accession to the European Union has caused outrage throughout Turkish society. Now that Erdogan has won a new mandate, should we assume that he will abandon the aggressive use of foreign policy as a means of bolstering nationalist support?

I wouldn't bet on it. It is true that for the moment Erdogan has abandoned his aggressive attitude towards Greece. He is no longer articulating threats to retake Greek islands by force, and there are currently no violations of Greek airspace in the Aegean. On the contrary, we have seen the resumption of bilateral confidence-building measures between the Greek and Turkish governments, as well as a new round of diplomacy aimed at finding a negotiated solution to the Cyprus issue. At the NATO summit in Vilnius, Erdogan said that Turkey will accept Sweden's membership in NATO within the fall.

After a decade of strained relations with key Western partners, Erdogan has made several moves to rebuild his relations with Israel, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. And this suggests that Erdogan may have abandoned the toxic approach, that of "independence in foreign policy".

But this turn is not believed by many people. Because the leaders are used to Erdogan's sharp turns. The fact is that Erdogan has reduced tensions with Greece and Cyprus, mainly because of the influence that their lobbies have in Washington.

Key lawmakers in Congress — such as Sen. Bob Menendez, who heads the Senate Foreign Relations Committee — are sympathetic to Hellen's stance, which sees Erdogan as a threat. Menendez and the committee he leads are blocking the sale of new F-16 fighter jets to Turkey.

In order for this purchase to be realized, Turkey must meet the demands of Congress and stop threatening Cyprus and Greece. The same can be said about his efforts to rebuild his image in the Turkish region.

Erdogan is likely to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, and has already shaken hands with Egyptian leader Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, whom he once called a tyrant. Also, he undertook a tour of visits to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, where he secured significant investments as well as beneficial commercial agreements.

At the moment, Erdogan is behaving in this way, because if he does not fix the ties with the mentioned powers, Ankara will be isolated. How far Erdogan's handshake with regional leaders will go to rebuild close ties remains to be seen.

However, one thing is clear, and it was explained very well by my colleague Steven Cook, who recently wrote that Erdogan's goal is "the pursuit of 3 basic ideas of foreign policy: strategic independence, power and economic development of Turkey". .

I would add that these 3 major ideas mean different things to Erdogan and his counterparts. In the event that Ankara succeeds in obtaining F-16 aircraft from Washington, there is no guarantee that it will not engage in antagonistic behavior towards its Greek neighbors.

Within NATO, let's assume that the Turkish parliament ratifies Sweden's membership. Can we be sure that at some point in the near future, Erdogan will not again block the normal operation of NATO, perhaps seeking to condition it on another purchase of arms and equipment from Washington?

If Ankara can secure large investment flows from the Persian Gulf countries, how sure can we be that Erdogan will continue to rebuild a substantive political dialogue with Israel? We must abandon the concept that Erdogan's Turkey will eventually be anchored to the West.

Leaders like Erdogan — and perhaps Hungary's Viktor Orban — have realized that making a big commitment to any cause or alliance yields little payoff. What offers more benefits is leveraging the position within entities such as NATO or the European Union.

For now, Erdogan benefits from appearing as a team player. Turkey will hold its local elections in May 2024, and there is strong evidence that a strong economy cannot be used as a trump card. By the end of this year at the latest, I expect to see which country Erdogan will begin to demonize as he officially returns to his "independent" foreign policy.

Note: Sinan Ciddi, member of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he contributes to the Turkey Program./ Adapted from CNA