Western Balkans, in a chaotic and leaderless world order

2023-08-11 20:55:00, Blog Zoran Ivanov

The current disorder of the international order is the result of the loss of vision of leadership by the West (led by the US), leading to a severe crisis of the liberal international order. This crisis is characterized by various interrelated factors, which are challenging global stability and development.

In this context, the Western Balkans region - a political term created by the European Union - finds itself at a critical moment, facing unique vulnerabilities, which could cause an explosion of old conflicts. The current global chaos is a consequence of the crisis in the liberal international order.

Erosion of multilateralism, growing nationalism, economic inequality, backlash against globalization and most importantly loss of faith in democracy are the most vital factors contributing to the current global crisis.

Furthermore, the war in Ukraine has the potential to escalate into a global conflict if common sense does not prevail. Within this context, the Western Balkans faces a number of unique challenges. He must move forward challenging the indecisiveness of the West but also the predatory nature of the East, led mainly by Russia and China.

This kind of confrontation has brought about weak institutions, economic inequality, social division and escalating security risks, which could lead to a complete collapse. Because these weaknesses hinder regional stability, economic development and present obstacles to integration and cooperation. Moreover, the region has its own liabilities, which foster regional impatience and economic stagnation, further increasing the risk of the situation escalating.

Reason and result

The current disorder of the global order, characterized by wars, high inflation rates and stagnant economic growth, stems from the West's loss of leadership vision. After World War II, the US laid out a vision for a better tomorrow.

And the liberal international order became the platform to realize this vision. Many countries aligned themselves with the West to secure a prosperous future. This is one of the main reasons why the US dominated with its soft power, although this issue deserves a separate analysis.

As for geopolitical rivalries, many analysts have scrutinized the global capacity of Russia and China to challenge the West. At the same time, it has often been argued that both countries were not strong enough to challenge the West during their recovery from the 2 world wars.

However, the real explanation lies in one of the most important leadership skills: unfolding a vision. After the Cold War, the West as opposed to the East, unfolded the vision of a prosperous future and offered hope to many countries to work together for mutual benefits.

It cannot be denied that at that time neither Russia nor China could dominate the global arena. They are not able to do that even today. The Cold War serves as a good benchmark to measure the East's ability to wage war against the West. The ongoing war in Ukraine serves as a reminder that countries still possess the ability to engage in war. In this context, the entity that takes global leadership and presents a clear vision will be decisive in shaping the future world order. Others will either follow suit or adapt accordingly.

Considering the current priorities and approaches of Russia and China in the field of geopolitical competition, it is imperative that the West regain its leadership role and create a new vision without wasting time.

All the more so because Turkey has a unique geographical position, which puts it in the right position to play a leadership role or serve as an example of leadership. It serves as a key bridge between the two continents, making it an important factor in maintaining a delicate balance between West and East.

Turkey has shown itself to be an allied partner, while effectively cooperating and fostering important relations with the countries of the Middle East, Asia and the Caucasus. The global system has undergone rapid change over the past century, and today we find ourselves living in what remains of the liberal international order.

The mismanagement of this order by Western leaders and politicians who lack accountability has caused the rise of populism, inequality, forced migration and various other challenges. The great powers have become predatory, while the middle powers try to balance protecting their national interests with those of the great powers.

On the other hand, it seems that the small states have run out of options, and are forced to implement the policy of the great powers, risking involvement in wars. The ongoing war in Ukraine serves as a perfect example. Therefore, the critical question remains unanswered: How can great powers be controlled to prevent reckless actions from occurring?

Stabilitocracy and development

The unfortunate label "Western Balkans", which has been imposed on the region by the EU, is a direct consequence of the crisis facing the liberal international order. While the Western powers managed to bring peace to the region during the 1990s, they failed to provide lasting long-term solutions that would ensure continued development.

Over time, the Dayton Agreement, which was originally intended to ensure peace, gradually became obsolete. And that was a predictable outcome, because the deal wasn't designed to spur development. The recognition status of Kosovo as an independent state remains unchanged.

The main objective in the Balkans was to maintain peace and not to achieve strategic and sustainable solutions that promote the rule of law, cultivate a democratic culture and promote economic development. On the one hand, the Western powers affirm their commitment to the integration of the Western Balkans into the EU.

On the other hand, politicians in the region also echo similar sentiments. However, neither party has taken tangible steps or taken responsibility to fulfill their respective obligations. Therefore, concrete actions are needed to address the outstanding challenges and complete the tasks in question.

Over time, the region has moved into a state of "stabilitocracy" instead of democracy. As long as the peace is preserved, the EU and the US have wittingly or unwittingly tolerated different politicians and their regimes, as recently highlighted by the latest report of the Clingendael Institute.

Stabilitocracy is a regime with significant deficiencies in terms of democratic governance. However, it enjoys external legitimacy (from the EU and the US) due to the perceived stability it guarantees. This model allows the same corrupt political elites to hold power, while the EU and the US provide tacit or seemingly unintended support.

Many regional politicians have learned to speak the "language of the EU", but very few of them have taken concrete steps towards the implementation of real reforms. This governance model is deeply rooted in the current political culture of the Western Balkans, fostering corruption, lack of transparency and limited rule of law, which undermine public trust and hinder economic development.

To promote stability, attract investment and ensure the sustainability of the region, it is essential to strengthen institutions, increase accountability and fight corruption. To break this vicious circle, countries in the Western Balkans need to shift their focus from pursuing the goal of EU integration as a dream, and instead focus more on initiatives that promote internal and regional development. .

The latter requires promoting the values ??of states and implementing principles that contribute to building a prosperous future. At the same time, the global West must regain its leading role and develop a new vision, not only for the Balkans, but also for the sake of global peace and development.

Note: Zoran Ivanov, professor at TOBB ETU and advisor at the RINK Institute in Ljubljana, Slovenia./ " Daily Sabah " - Translated and adapted by CNA