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State of the Climate Report/ "El Niño" is increasing global temperatures, impact even in 2027

2026-07-25 15:49:00, Sociale CNA

State of the Climate Report/ "El Niño" is increasing global

As the year 2026 is in its second half, the world is experiencing one of the fastest-growing El Niño events.

Carbon Brief's State of the Climate report showed that El Niño is raising expectations for global temperatures, both this year and next.

El Niño conditions arrived in April and reached the threshold for a “strong” climate by June, when the Niño 3.4 index reached 1.6C. Of the 667 models reviewed by Carbon Brief, 91% predict a peak later this year that is above the strongest El Niño on record.

The chance that 2026 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record has increased to 35%. Carbon Brief's central estimate remains that 2026 will be the second warmest year on record, around 1.51C above pre-industrial levels.

Whether 2026 will set a record will depend on the data: probabilities range from about two in three in NASA and Berkeley Earth data to about two in 10 in ERA5 and one in 10 in the JRA-3Q reanalyses.

June 2026 was the hottest June ever recorded in Western Europe, amid a heatwave that set hundreds of individual records. Almost 9% of the world's surface saw a record June temperature.

The developing El Niño will have its biggest impact in 2027, which Carbon Brief predicts will be about 1.7 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, easily setting a new record for the warmest year. /CNA 





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