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Russia's blackmails no longer carry weight, the world knows that Putin is afraid to use nuclear weapons

2023-08-14 08:52:00, Blog Svitlana Morenets

Russia's blackmails no longer carry weight, the world knows that Putin is

While Vladimir Putin generally shies away from overt threats of Russian nuclear weapons, his successors are much less elegant in their behavior. Since February of last year, Dimitri Medvedev, the former president of Russia, currently the deputy chairman of the Security Council, has threatened Ukraine and its supporters in the West 60 times with the use of atomic weapons.

Now 57, Medvedev occupies an important role in Russia's strategic communications, notably focused on nuclear propaganda. His job is to say what Putin cannot say publicly. So remind the world who owns the world's largest nuclear arsenal, and where it can be used.

But the problem is that now nobody takes it seriously anymore. Because some of what are claimed to be Moscow's "red lines" have been violated by the West, without a response from Russia. Therefore, it is a fact that Russian nuclear blackmail has stopped working.

In fact, it has become a semi-useful indicator of Russia's current state. Medvedev's threats usually follow new Russian military failures on the battlefield, and follow the old refrain "if we're on the verge of losing a war, then we have a red button to push."

As Ukraine's military counterattack escalated last weekend, Medvedev appeared as the "vanguard of the apocalypse" on his Telegram channel, calling the Russian military the only force that is avoiding "igniting a global nuclear conflagration."

In the early days of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the West took this threat seriously: Did helping Ukraine mean risking the start of a nuclear war? But it didn't take much imagination to see an equally dire alternative scenario: if Kiev fell, then it would be the Baltic states' turn, and we'd end up risking provoking a nuclear war anyway.

Holding back an aggressor may be the most provocative act of all. The West found courage and confronted Russia. And what happened? Western weapons were sent in large quantities to the battlefield. Ukraine hopes to one day join NATO when the war ends; and the only change in Russia's nuclear approach has been the alleged transfer to Belarus of some tactical nuclear weapons.

But Russia already possesses the ability to launch a nuclear attack anywhere it wants. Therefore, there is no military logic in moving some missiles to Belarus. The value of this move was purely psychological.

So Moscow is trying to convince the West that further military and financial support for Ukraine will lead to an escalation of the situation, and will increase the threat to Ukrainian territory through the launch of missiles, including those with nuclear warheads.

"Nuclear weapons have already been used. We know from whom and where, and this means that there is no longer any taboo!" - Medvedev wrote on his social networks. But the fact that Moscow has decided to put the "nuclear argument" on the table only shows that its army has failed in every aspect, and that currently Vladimir Putin has no other ways to increase the pressure on Ukraine and its allies.

Reluctant to make direct threats himself, he delegates this task to Medvedev, who does not seem to do very well. Because it is a fact that his nuclear threats rarely make a splash in the Western media. He even now causes more ridicule than fear.

Like North Korea's regular threats that it will one day attack America, they are now seen as part of a daily crazy vocabulary coming from Moscow. Meanwhile, he is ignored by Ukrainian officials, who ironically advise him to drink less vodka before opening his Telegram profile.

Putin's attempt to invade Ukraine has turned out to be the biggest disaster of his presidency. He cannot secure a military victory. I know that Ukraine will not give up and start negotiations. And he also knows that nuclear war would be the end of his regime and his life. As this war has shown, Putin is ready to sacrifice anyone, but not himself./ Adapted from CNA