IMF lowers global growth forecast for 2026 to 3.1%

2026-04-15 10:53:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

Reuters - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 3.1 percent in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) report published on Tuesday, while maintaining its forecast for 2027 at 3.2 percent.

This marks a slowdown from the estimated 3.4 percent growth achieved in 2025. Before the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, bottom-up forecasts for global growth would have been 3.4 percent in 2026 and 3.2 percent in 2027.

The forecast includes the impact of the war and assumes that it will be limited in duration, intensity and scope, with disruptions fading by mid-2026.

According to the reference forecast, global inflation is expected to rise to 4.4 percent in 2026 and fall to 3.7 percent in 2027.

If the conflict and the subsequent rise in oil prices last longer, global economic growth in 2026 will fall to 2.5 percent, while global inflation will rise to 5.4 percent, according to the report.

In extreme cases, global economic growth in 2026 could fall to two percent, the report warned.

To be more specific, the US economy is forecast to grow by 2.3 percent in 2026 and 2.1 percent in 2027, although higher trade barriers introduced since April 2025 are expected to continue to weigh on activity.

In the euro area, growth is projected to decline from 1.4 percent in 2025 to 1.1 percent in 2026 before reaching 1.2 percent in 2027. The projections for 2026 and 2027 are each 0.2 percentage points lower than those compared in the January 2026 WEO Update.

The 2026 economic growth forecast for emerging markets and economies has been revised down by 0.3 percentage points, to 3.9 percent, while the outlook for advanced economies remains broadly unchanged.

With risks still tilted to the downside since the January 2026 WEO Update, the IMF suggested a comprehensive policy package that combines domestic measures with coordinated international action to strengthen resilience and foster adjustment.

The report also said that "trade restrictions play a limited role in correcting imbalances but can worsen output" and urged countries to cooperate and take coordinated action to restore stability in international economic relations./ CNA