NATO "latecomers" should not forget that we live in a world that has become even more treacherous

2023-09-08 07:41:00, Blog CNA

NATO "latecomers" should not forget that we live in a world that has

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The United States and its Western allies have launched a campaign to bolster military preparedness. This has been driven largely by the huge threat posed by Russia's full-scale attack on Ukraine 18 months ago.

But even though NATO's general expenses are increasing, some of the 31 member states of the alliance are delaying the fulfillment of the defined objectives, that is, those that everyone accepts are a collective responsibility. And the "latecomers" include some of the richest countries of NATO and the world, such as Canada, Italy and Spain.

Only the Gross Domestic Product of these 3 countries is almost 3 times the GDP of Russia. And yet each of them still falls far short of meeting NATO's goal of spending 2 percent of GDP annually on defense, a goal that all member countries agreed to nearly a decade ago.

Moreover, the alliance now considers this level of spending to be the minimum to address the growing risks it is facing. The consequences of meeting or not meeting this objective are important as a geopolitical signal but also of readiness on the ground.

As Vladimir Putin transforms Russia's economy into a war economy, to support a bloody military campaign that could go on for years, the West must show that it, too, is pooling its resources, something all the more important for a long-term war.

Vladimir Putin

Failure to do so would only encourage the Kremlin's bet that time is on its side. The consequences on the ground from avoiding NATO's spending target are equally severe. Canada, which has the 9th largest economy in the world, is a typical example of this neglect.

According to a secret Pentagon document consulted by us this spring, the Canadian Armed Forces themselves have concluded that due to a "sustainable" lack of defense spending, Canada "cannot conduct a major military operation ,” while maintaining its aid to Ukraine, and directing a battle group of several thousand troops to Latvia, a small NATO country bordering Russia.

That, and other problems with readiness and recruiting, should alarm Ottawa.

In April of this year, former Canadian military, security and intelligence officials and senior experts issued a dire warning to the government.

"Years of spending cuts, cost reductions, downsizing of the military and delayed investments have resulted in the atrophy of Canada's defense capabilities," they said in an open letter.

Canada's meager military spending also leaves it ill-equipped to assist its US partners in the North American Aerospace Defense Command, NORAD. Ottawa also lacks the capacity to be active in the Arctic, where Russia and China are significantly increasing their activities.

But despite this situation, and despite tensions with NATO stemming from this neglect, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has told allies that Ottawa will never meet the alliance's 2 percent defense spending target, according to the document. classified, which The Washington Post obtained after it was shared on the messaging app Discord.

It spends on the military only 1.4 percent of the Gross Domestic Product. Meanwhile, the United States spends roughly 3.5 percent of its GDP. But Canada is not the only problematic member. This year, only 11 of the alliance's 31 members will reach or exceed the 2 percent threshold.

Italy, with an economy slightly larger than Canada's, spends only slightly more on defense than Canada. Ottawa has made significant contributions to the defense and financial stability of Ukraine, and has taken in tens of thousands of Ukrainian refugees.

But despite huge investments in defense recently - it spent 19 billion dollars on the purchase this year of 88 US F-35 fighter jets, and is spending twice as much to modernize its capabilities under NORAD - other countries of the major NATO forces are moving faster.

NATO "latecomers" should not forget that we live in a world that has

France, a nuclear-armed state with a formidable military, is spending the most on defense in half a century, and is expected to reach 2 percent of GDP in the coming years. Even Germany, for years a modest contributor to NATO, announced last year the creation of a special fund of 100 billion dollars for additional defense spending over the next 5 years.

It also increased regular military spending in the budget, even though spending decreased in almost every other category. Berlin aims to hit the 2 percent threshold next year, although that rate will drop after the $100 billion fund is spent.

NATO "latecomers" should not forget that we live in a world that has

If left to their own devices, most of the countries of the alliance will decide to spend "more on butter, and less on weapons." But Russia's aggression, as well as the growing challenge posed by China, has deprived the West of this kind of luxury.

Putin's decision to launch the biggest war in Europe in almost 80 years, and the danger Russia will represent for the foreseeable future, means that Western countries have no choice but to face a daunting new challenge. The sooner they understand this whole message, the better./ Adapted from CNA.al