The counteroffensive of the consecrated victory by Ukraine and the West!  

2023-06-08 17:57:00, Opinione Piro Ahmetaj
The counteroffensive of the consecrated victory by Ukraine and the West!  
Piro Ahmetaj, General

In the capacity of the National Security, Regional and NATO Expert, I followed with increased interest and additional responsibility about 500 days of fighting in Ukraine, sharing strategic perspectives at "10 conferences of the Atlantic Council and the Institute of War in Washington ; panels with security experts/personalities in Brussels, Marshall Center, Germany, London, Paris, Bucharest, Sofia, Pristina, Warsaw, NATO College Rome, etc.

Unable to give a dedicated answer to each of the interested media, specifically the expectations of the counteroffensive and with it the fate of the war in Ukraine, I am presenting below an updated summary of about 500 days of Ukraine's stoic confrontation and determination The Transatlantic Alliance (USA/NATO/UK/EU) in the battle against common evil:

16 months ago, on February 24, 2022, the Putin regime returned to the criminal adventure of occupying a sovereign state by force of arms, simultaneously challenging the global security order, as well as threatening the geopolitical status quo not only in the region.   

Thus, after 16 months, it has become even clearer that Russia-Putinist started the military aggression, not only by recycling a bloody enterprise (like war), but also with concepts, armaments and twisted minds.

Leaders deformed by paranoia of (over) power and nostalgic for the " glory of the Red Army " in the Kremlin; anti-Western kamikaze; self-(de)graded generals; brokers of oligarchy interests and all-knowing analyst/paymasters around the world (including in Albania, etc.), and (over)estimated Russia's military power with traditional scales [number of tanks, Mig/29 (almost equivalent to F-35), nuclear warhead/weapons, etc]. As a result, they predicted the most ominous scenario: " if not work for weeks, at most months, they would celebrate with "song and dance" the glorious victory of the invasion of Ukraine as well as the triumph over the Transatlantic Alliance in a grand parade in Kiev on May 9, 2022" .  

Thanks to the blood, heroic resistance and sublime sacrifices of Ukrainian martyrs, none of this happened. But what has been achieved (?) and who is the situation between the warring parties after 16 months?

Despite the desperate efforts of the panic, or more recently the escalation with terrorist attacks on the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam or the international ammonia pipeline, in Kharkiv, in order to prevent the counter-offensive reinforced and blessed by the West, Putinist Russia has (bad ) failed to achieve strategic objectives (invasion), to maintain operational superiority as well as army morale.   

On the contrary, in 16 months of bloody fighting, Russia is lost in all aspects: "about 30% of the territories occupied and declared by referendums under bayonets as part of Mother-Russia; 200 thousand killed in battle; about €5 Trillion, or 3 times more than Russia's Gross Domestic Product for 2022 (€1.7 Trillion); destroyed the morale of the army, the cohesion and prestige of the Russian nation; operational superiority as well as strategic initiative"!

On the other hand, 16 months of fighting proved that the military aggression of Russia-Putinist was not only against the sovereignty of Ukraine but also: "a serious threat to the global security order, the borders of democracy, Western values ??as well as to the interests of the Alliance Euro-Atlantic (USA/UK/NATO/EU) ".

After 500 days of bloody fighting, it has also been proven (perhaps with 2-3 exceptions from controversial actors but without strategic intuition), that Putinist Russia has lost the battle/hopes to test the cohesion between the 31 NATO countries, using gas "as a geopolitical weapon" or threatening (as a terrorist state) with nuclear power!

Over €100 billion in armaments and modern military equipment, the expansion of NATO on the borders of Russia with the Scandinavian countries (Finland & Sweden), etc. are strong evidences that demonstrate the reinforced cohesion of the Alliance in support of the sovereignty of Ukraine, for the defense of the status and interests of the Transatlantic Alliance in the region.

Thus, after 16 months of bloody war - Putinist Russia is even more isolated from the whole world: " out of 195 (including Kosovo) only 4 countries recognized him in this neo-Nazi adventure "; because of this war, it potentially risks exclusion from the 5 decision-makers of the Security Council/UN as well as an " arrest warrant from the international court"  for Putin and further for all the list of Generals and courtiers or " war criminals " around Him, speak louder than the screeching of MiG-29s, Tanks and missiles on the battlefield.

On the other hand, despite the cynical scowls of the KGB brood, Putin's bloody hand is rejected by the autocrats of Southeast Asia, while only the terrorist regimes, such as Iran, North Korea & the Malian Junta, are left as allies. 

On the other hand, thankfully, Putinist Russia failed to ignite a new war front by inspiring criminal groups, the agenda of discredited politicians and corrupt officials as well as Dodik-type extremists in the Balkans, or to recycle the oscillations of official Belgrade threatening "up to military aggression under the supervision of the Russian Ambassador to Serbia... !!" not only the territorial sovereignty of the Republic of Kosovo, but also the increased presence of NATO/KFOR with a mission on the ground?!

Likewise, 16 months of fighting with the "superpower seized by the paranoia of Stalinist ambitions", however, showed that beyond the sublime sacrifices of Ukraine, the fate of the war remains linked by the power of cohesion as well as the support with modern weapons from the West.

In financial terms, the package of support from the West, USA, UK, Germany, Norway and NATO countries (Patriot systems, Drones, Tanks, Aircraft, etc.) confirmed on the eve of the strategic meeting amounts to over €100 billion.

On the other hand, the Historic EU Summit and the visit of the US President, Joe Biden to Kiev; the reception and impressive messages of President Zelensky in all Euro-Atlantic offices, Institutions and forums, demonstrate the unwavering determination of the West to support Ukraine without compromise, until the final victory over the common evil, Russia-Putinist.

Also, it should be recalled that in the "wise effort" to avoid bloodshed, Ukraine, in agreement with the West, "offered" a moderate approach in relation to Ukraine's membership in NATO. Simply put, the White House, London, Berlin, etc. initially "negotiated neutral Ukraine or as a buffer zone" between NATO and Russia. Whereas, after 16 months of bloody fighting, Ukraine, again in sync with the West, has officially returned to the aspiration of NATO membership, although Secretary General Stoltenberg has responded "with administrative/bureaucratic time = after the war)".

In other words, all factors are projecting a lasting peace after the end of the war. So, not too long ago, I hope to see Ukraine at the Brussels table among the 32 NATO member countries. As it is said in the vernacular, through this bloody adventure Russia - Putinist: "instead of putting the eyebrows out and the eyes" by self-surrounding and taking the borders of NATO not far from Moscow.

In conclusion of the above, I think that with the arrival of 90% of the package of last generation weapons from the USA, UK, Germany and from almost all NATO countries (Abrams, Challenger, Leopard tanks, Patriot systems, Bajraktar drones , Combat aircraft, etc.), it is the right strategic time to start the counter-teaching of the victory deserved by the blood, heroic resistance and sublime sacrifices of the Ukrainians but also supported and blessed by the West.

On the other hand, this counter-offensive will only mark the beginning of the end of the unstoppable rollback of Putinist Russia, which is not only shamefully losing the war, but will certainly suffer in the face of military power, reinforced cohesion, democratic values ??and geopolitical interests of the Euro-Atlantic Alliance (USA/NATO/UK/EU)!

On this occasion, we have no reason not to salute and feel proud for the active role of the Republic of Albania, as a result of the dignified performance in the UN Security Council; for the solidarity and unconditional support of the positions, decisions and commitments of the USA/NATO, as well as the more than modest contributions that RS continues to give to the martyred Ukraine.

In addition, from which of the security experts I would advise the political factors and state actors of Tirana and Pristina Official that: "the loss of the war, the economic collapse and the international discretization, including in the Balkans that awaits Russia, remains a favorable circumstance geopolitical for the benefit of factoring RSh at the big decision-making tables (USA/NATO/UN) as well as to protect and develop National interests in the Region, the Mediterranean, etc. " !

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