Experts say Russia's claims of progress are exaggerated

2026-06-24 22:38:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

Russia is still advancing slowly in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine, where it has concentrated the bulk of its troops, as it continues efforts to encircle the key "fortress belt" town of Kostyantynivka and the city of Lyman.

But outside experts and Ukrainian soldiers who spoke to CNN say Russia's claims of progress are exaggerated and come as the Kremlin is likely trying to project a success narrative to counter the impact of recent Ukrainian attacks inside Russia.

Russian state media TASS claimed on Monday that Russian forces had "gained full control" of the eastern part of Kostyantynivka and were approaching its northeastern outskirts.

In reality, parts of the city have become a contested "gray zone" – with neither side controlling them – according to the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

“These are infiltrations, these are not breakthroughs. These are groups of maybe one or two Russian soldiers, entering some positions in the city… it’s not a consolidated position,” said ISW Russia team leader Kateryna Stepanenko, who described the tactic as slow and difficult. “They still need a lot of time and resources to exploit it in consolidated positions.”

Ukrainian soldiers on the front lines told CNN that the situation there is deteriorating, although it is manageable and Russia's movements are still extremely slow.

"The situation in the Kostyantynivka sector, especially in Kostyantynivka itself, has significantly deteriorated in recent weeks," Kostiantyn Melnykov, a press officer for the Ukrainian 24th Mechanized Brigade fighting in the nearby town of Chasiv Yar, told CNN on Tuesday. "The enemy is increasing the number of airstrikes in this sector."

Russia's goal is to capture the entire Donbas region of Ukraine, which contains the "fortress belt" of industrial cities, railways and roads that form the backbone of the country's defenses and supply the front line. This includes capturing Kostyantynivka and surrounding settlements - something that appears to be Russia's main objective at the moment.

But Melnykov added that Ukrainian units in the area are killing Russian troops, destroying equipment and "holding back the much superior enemy forces."