Russia has suffered heavy losses in Ukraine, how long can Putin continue the war?

2023-09-25 22:53:00, Blog Peter Suciu

Russia has suffered heavy losses in Ukraine, how long can Putin continue the

Although Ukraine's much-anticipated counteroffensive started late, and throughout the summer it failed to bring the success many expected, the fact remains that the Russian military remains on the defensive. Kiev's forces have only in recent weeks begun to break through the occupier's fortified positions, and are not yet likely to see any major progress before the arrival of even colder weather conditions.

As a result, it appears that the war in Ukraine, which began in February last year when Russia launched its unprovoked, large-scale invasion, will continue at least until next year. Until then, a number of questions remained: Can Ukraine continue to receive the necessary support from the West, given that its offensive failed to make significant progress?

Without the help of the West, Ukraine cannot win this war. However, even if Western aid is reduced, it appears that Russia is so weakened that it will find it difficult to mount another major offensive like the first one.

According to the latest estimates made by the Ukrainian military - which may be somewhat exaggerated - the Kremlin has so far lost 275,000 killed or wounded. Likewise, 4,628 tanks were destroyed from its arsenal, along with 8,851 armored vehicles.

The common assessment by many military analysts is that Ukraine is likely to drive out the Russian invaders with continued Western support. It is generally believed that at the current intensity of fighting, Russia may be able to maintain its positions in Ukraine for another 2 years.

Although it has a large number of men at its disposal, Russia lacks trained reservists, and more importantly modern equipment to send them to the war front. It lost its best soldiers in the early stages of the war, and is now unable to replace the tanks and other equipment it has lost.

For this reason, it has sent outdated equipment, belonging to the Cold War era, and which, as expected, turned out to be unsuitable for a modern war in the 21st century. The T-62 tanks and even the older ones of the T-54/55 series strengthened the Kremlin's military power on paper.

But on the ground they were seen to be "paper tigers", meaning they were basically little more than a few steel coffins for the crews who operated them. While Moscow at least had older tanks it could send to war, it lacked trained young troops.

It does not have the luxury of using its veterans in coaching roles, so it is sending people with less experience to the front to lead the youth. This will greatly affect the situation on the front line, the British Ministry of Defense stated in its latest intelligence update on the War in Ukraine.

"The lack of regular rotations of units that are out of service is probably one of the most important factors contributing to the low morale of the Russian troops and the failure of the Russian military to conduct higher level training from the beginning of the invasion. The lack of such training is likely to contribute to Russia's difficulties in conducting successful complex offensive operations," the British Ministry of Defense noted.

Throughout its centuries-long existence, Russia has shown that it is capable of suffering heavy losses and still fighting, at least for a while. However, World War I can serve as a reminder that Russia can fight for a long time.

In the first weeks of World War I, in August 1914, Russia experienced the near complete destruction of its armies at the Battle of Tannenberg, losing over 170,000 troops. Although she was able to continue fighting for almost 3 more years, she never recovered from that defeat. Even Vladimir Putin's War in Ukraine looks set to be just as devastating for Russia./ " 19FortyFive " - ??Translated and adapted by CNA