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The West should not underestimate Russia's resilience

2023-09-19 22:48:00, Blog Janis Kluge

Russia's war on Ukraine and Western sanctions were putting the Russian economy, military and political system under unprecedented pressure. As the failed rebellion of Wagner's leader Yevgeny Prigozhin showed, drastic changes can happen at any moment.

But there are a number of important factors at play that could help Russian President Vladimir Putin's regime survive much longer than the West would like, and even allow Moscow to rebuild its military in the coming years.

It is very important to consider these factors, not as a reason to seek a peace agreement with Moscow, but to really understand the challenges that may await the West, Europe and Ukraine in particular. In economic terms, Russia is experiencing a very special crisis.

While Russians have lost their chance for a more prosperous future, the regime in the Kremlin is still rich. Moscow can count on the billions of dollars it receives from exports to fill its coffers for years to come.

Even in the first half of this year, Russia earned over $200 billion, more than it needs to cover its import needs. Even if the oil price cap the G7 set for it worked perfectly, Moscow could still expect $400 billion a year in export revenue.

As long as global oil markets remain under pressure from high demand, the West does not have much room to maneuver. The situation can change only in the event of a very serious global economic downturn. Russian industry is still completely interdependent on Western technologies.

But despite the sanctions, it is also able to import many of the vital components it needs to make weapons. China has come to Moscow's aid, selling Russia large quantities of Western dual-use products such as semiconductors.

While some newly produced Russian weapons have become less sophisticated, the country's main problem appears to be the rapid increase in production capacity. Finding machinery to build new production lines has become more difficult as a result of the sanctions.

But production is not suffering any drastic decline due to general lack of spare parts or materials. Another element of the crisis in Russia is the severe labor shortage caused by a long-term demographic crisis, combined with the short-term effects of military mobilization and the emigration of many skilled Russians abroad.

With fewer skilled workers available, Russians may be able to take advantage of more job vacancies and higher wages. At least in the largest cities, Russia's population is close to full employment. Living standards are lower than before the war, and will continue to fall because the government is prioritizing arms production over social spending.

From the perspective of many Russians, there are still personal economic opportunities (or needs) that give them a reason to ignore politics and focus on their careers and family life. And that means they will think twice before expressing their displeasure about the war or Putin, since they still have something to lose.

Censorship and repression intensified with the war in Ukraine. Some of the most active members of Russian civil society have fled the country or been imprisoned. The war has deepened divisions among Russians, who now have to be careful when expressing their opinion on Ukraine, even to their friends and colleagues.

Also, the war has been effective in disciplining Russia's high officials. Even the technocrats who were visibly shocked when the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began are now primarily concerned with avoiding defeat for the Russian military. In the new reality created by the war, they see Putin as the best tool for collective survival.

There is hardly any post-war scenario for a post-Putin Russia that would attract the attention of these cynical elites. The war crimes, destruction and death that Russia has caused in Ukraine are irreversible. Together with the Ukrainian territories it has unilaterally annexed, they make it impossible to compromise or restore relations with the West and lift sanctions for a very long time.

Internationally, Russia is largely isolated from the West, and the Hague Court's arrest warrant for Putin greatly restricts the Russian president's movement abroad. Putin has no choice but to ask the leaders of far less developed countries like North Korea and Iran for help, buying ammunition and drones from them.

Meanwhile, most non-Western countries are against the complete isolation of Russia. Interest in diplomatic forums involving Russia, such as BRICS, has increased significantly. Above all, Russia has received economic aid from different parts of the globe.

While China is helping Russia gain access to Western technologies, Saudi Arabia's cut in oil production is a timely boon for Moscow as it keeps its revenues high despite Western sanctions.

Of course, none of the factors described above guarantee long-term political stability in Russia. Putin is bound to make mistakes, as he has in the past. The notoriously dark nature of the Putin regime makes it impossible to predict how long the Russian system will remain stable in the face of its current challenges.

But the West should not ignore the possibility that Putin will still be in power in 5 or 10 years. Therefore, the West cannot count on Russia's weakness or instability. Rather, he must urgently redouble current efforts and develop a long-term strategy for containing Russia.

Sanctions are crucial to slowing Moscow's military resurgence. But they need further tightening. Non-Western countries should be encouraged to refrain from aiding Russia with the right mix of pressure and incentives. But the West, and Europe in particular, must also invest much more in their military capabilities to defend themselves and increase support for Ukraine for many years to come.

Note: Janis Kluge, fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (GIAS) in Berlin./ " The Moscow Times " - Adapted from CNA