What consequences could Trump's ultimatum to Iran have?

2026-03-23 11:10:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

The conflict over the Strait of Hormuz is escalating significantly. US President Donald Trump has given Iran a 48-hour ultimatum to open the strategic sea route, threatening to attack Iranian power plants if it does not.

The Strait of Hormuz is a key hub for global oil and gas trade, with about a fifth of the world's oil supplies passing through it. Iran has warned it will retaliate.

Iran could easily block the Strait of Hormuz

Iran has the military capacity to relatively easily block the Strait of Hormuz, which has already reduced maritime traffic and increased international tensions.

Iran has the ability to inflict significant damage with relatively simple means. According to a New York Times report, US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine warned Trump during a meeting in the Oval Office that even a single Iranian soldier could approach the shipping vessels in a speedboat and fire a missile or lay a mine.

Possible US targets

Trump has stated that he will start with the "largest thermal power plant" in Iran, without giving further details. It is likely that the target will be gas-fired power plants, since about 80% of electricity in Iran is produced from natural gas. Among the most important is the plant in Damavand, near Tehran, with a capacity of over 2,800 megawatts, as well as another in Mazandaran province, near the Caspian Sea, with a capacity of over 2,200 megawatts.

A possible American attack on these facilities would have serious consequences for the population, jeopardizing the supply of electricity, water, and the functioning of the economy.

How might Iran respond?

Iran has warned that if attacks are launched, it will completely close the Strait of Hormuz and will not reopen it until the destroyed power plants are rebuilt. Tehran has also threatened to attack desalination plants in Persian Gulf countries, which are vital for the region's drinking water supply.

These plants are vitally important, as the Gulf countries have very few natural freshwater resources and over 90% of the drinking water in some countries such as Qatar and Bahrain is provided by desalination plants. Attacks on them could jeopardize the water supply for millions of people and damage important sectors such as the chemical industry and data centers.

Long-term damage to the region

According to analysts, damage to a single plant can be temporarily compensated, but coordinated attacks with missiles and drones on water distribution networks would have much more serious consequences. In addition to the practical impact, the psychological effect would be great, damaging the image of security and stability in the region, which could drive away investors, tourists and economic partners.

Overall, further escalation of the conflict risks having serious humanitarian, economic and international geopolitical consequences./DW