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The three weapons that can break Russia within this year

2023-05-27 08:48:00, Blog CNA

The three weapons that can break Russia within this year

Illustrative photo

Make no doubt: the war in Ukraine can end this year, with the defeat of the Russian army. All that is needed is for us in the West to give the Ukrainians the weapons they need to win the war. And the lack of clarity on our objective, especially in the White House, is hindering effective action.

If we really want the Ukrainians to win this war and act accordingly, Russia must be defeated and will be kicked out of Ukrainian territory. Here are the weapons I think we should send that would greatly help the Ukrainians to win.

First is the Army's Tactical Missile System, ATACMS. It can be used through the platforms of the HIMARS systems that we have already sent to Ukraine. At the moment, the latter are armed with the Multiple Guided Missile System (GMLRS), which can hit targets up to 90 km away.

Meanwhile, the ATACMS system can hit at a distance of up to 300 km. Even an ATACMS can carry 6 GMLRS. The ATACMS missile system would change the war because it would expose every square inch of occupied Ukrainian territory, including the entire Crimean peninsula.

We should also send to Ukraine the small-diameter ground-launched bomb, another longer-range weapon from the existing stockpile, rather than waiting for new ones to be produced specifically for this war. The Crimean peninsula is the decisive ground of this war.

Bakhmut is relatively unimportant. As long as Russia holds Crimea, Putin controls the Sea of ??Azov and threatens the port city of Odessa. The Sevastopol naval base, on the southern tip of Crimea, is home to Russia's Black Sea fleet and enables Moscow to control Ukraine's access to the world's oceans and shipping lanes.

Meanwhile, Crimea is also an important logistics route for Putin's forces in the south of the country. As ammunition, materials and reinforcements can be moved to the peninsula via the Kerch Bridges and then to the front line.

A peace deal under which Russia would continue to hold Crimea is a loss for Ukraine. If it continues to be kept under siege, the country would not be able to rebuild itself. And this situation would have consequences for all of Europe, as millions of refugees may not be able to return home.

However, there are reasons to be optimistic. Zelensky and his generals have so far achieved remarkable success. As the Russians were trapped in Bakhmut, the Ukrainian high command managed to resist the temptation to send reinforcements there. Meanwhile, it has given him the opportunity to amass a large amount of combat power.

It now has 3 brigades equipped with western tanks and other weapons, and several other brigades with original Ukrainian or Russian-captured armor, ready to go on the offensive. Tanks and armored infantry must be accompanied by engineer support to push them through the Russian defenses, supported by heavy mobile artillery.

Also, there should be large supplies of ammunition, fuel and spare parts.

While this amount of force is being used, mobile air defense batteries must move forward to protect the ground forces. But even more important: it must significantly increase Ukrainian air power, giving them F-16 fighter jets, and guaranteeing them the necessary training and support to operate them.

Given the vast superiority of the Russian air force in numbers, this may seem like an impossible mission. But the fact is that Russian air power has turned out to be much less effective than we thought, and one thing is certain: we constantly overestimate the time it takes the Ukrainians to learn new techniques and use new weapons.

Of course, it will not be easy to put in place the systems necessary to operate with a fleet of Western aircraft. But the answer to this challenge is: bring in contractors who can provide vital maintenance and other essential support, and do it as quickly as possible.

Soon the Ukrainians will be able to use their own aircraft and those sent by the West to provide cover for their ground counterattack. It won't take them long, if they can be equipped with the right tools, to counter the Russian missile bombardment and start controlling their skies.

This brings me to the next major weapon system we need to field: the Gray Eagle drone. It will allow the Ukrainians to provide air support on the battlefield, without endangering the pilots and the few aircraft in number. The Gray Eagle can carry 4 Hellfire missiles, each of which can destroy a tank or other armored vehicle.

With these capabilities, Ukraine will be able to launch an armored attack and cut off the "land bridge", the strip of coastal territory connecting Russia and Crimea. With ATACMS available, the advancing Ukrainians will be able to strike the Sevastopol naval base and the Saky air base, and drive the Russians out.

It may make sense to leave the Kerch Bridges untouched for a while, as this will allow the Russians to leave. But if Putin uses the bridges to send reinforcements, then they could be destroyed. The Western tanks that have already been sent to Ukraine, the Abrams, Leopard and Challenger, are all excellent.

But if you have a crew that is great at using a Russian T-72 tank, then that might be the best tank to send to the Ukrainians. What Ukrainians should not do, however, is mix different types of vehicles within units: each unit should use a single type to simplify maintenance, rearmament, and so on.

By cutting off the land bridge that Russia has created, and by knocking down the Kerch Bridge or leaving it open as a retreat route, it will be possible for Moscow to leave Crimea. It certainly won't be easy, but with the ability to conduct strikes with great precision across the area and with Russian air and naval power forced off the peninsula, it can be done.

Once Crimea is liberated, I don't believe there will be much desire in Moscow to fight for the remaining parts of Eastern Ukraine. Donbass was mainly important as a springboard to connect with Crimea. The war can be won and ended this year. But that will only happen if we Westerners agree that this is what we want and start acting towards that goal.

Note: Retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges served as the United States Army General for Europe. He was a brigade commander during the invasion of Iraq in 2003./ Adapted from CNA.al