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Four possible scenarios for the drone attack on the Kremlin

2023-05-06 15:23:00, Blog CNA

I visited Kiev last month to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, a trip that took a day and a half. Of course, I also got to know some of the American security officers who were accompanying me and my colleagues to the US Congress.

When we boarded the train for the 12-hour journey to Kiev, knowing we were entering a war zone, I asked one of the security officers. "Do you ever worry that Russia will hit you along the way? - "No, not at all" - he answered me laughing.

This is perhaps the most obvious reality on the ground that the US continues to ignore: the Russian military no longer poses a threat to NATO. It also debunks the basic reason many cite for Ukraine's unending support: "If we don't stop Putin in Ukraine, he will expand the war across Europe."

Putin's invasion has served as a convincing demonstration that Russia's military training, doctrine and equipment are vastly overrated. We should be grateful for this new reality and adjust our behavior accordingly. This was also my message to President Zelenski.

The American people, including themselves, have proudly supported every effort to help the people of Ukraine. But we cannot continue to ignore the fact that the battlefield has changed significantly over the past 14 months, and that military realities have changed with it.

Here the question arises: How much time and how much money and for what purpose are we willing to commit to Ukraine? President Biden continues to pledge his full support for Ukraine "for as long as it takes." But this abstract commitment raises an even more pressing question: Long enough to do what?

President Zelensky's answer to this question is clear. He is committed to freeing every inch of Ukrainian territory that has been occupied by Russian forces, including Crimea. He has even declared that he refuses to enter into peace talks unless Russia withdraws from the Crimean Peninsula.

Is this exactly what Biden means when he says "as long as it takes"? If so, then we must prepare the American people for a long and bloody conflict, in which at some point the American soldiers will have to be engaged.

Because Ukraine has no hope of retaking Crimea without direct US military involvement. And the peninsula is a "red line" for Putin. And yet, I keep hearing from political leaders that we can manage a gradual escalation of the situation in Ukraine to defeat Russia.

“Send them our Abrams tanks and our F-16s. This step will force Putin to withdraw," they say. But these claims ignore history. How accurate were we once in predicting the outcome of the war in Vietnam, Iraq, Libya or Afghanistan? In fact, the unintended consequences of Putin's war are already beginning to be felt.

The increasingly close relationship between China and Russia is just one example, as it has enabled Moscow to continue funding its war. But for the sake of our vital national security interest, I believe the time has come to change this strategy.

First, we must hold our European allies accountable for securing themselves and their neighbors. The United States has contributed over $47 billion in military aid to Ukraine, compared to just over $3 billion from the entire European Union. If President Biden will not require the EU to match the contribution, then Congress must approve this conditionality in any authorization for additional spending.

Second, we must balance our efforts in Ukraine against the military threat posed by China. Are we wasting valuable weapons and ammunition that might be needed to defend against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan? The war in Ukraine has only made China bolder, and we must be prepared.

Third, we must demand that President Zelenski be willing to discuss a possible ceasefire, without any preconditions regarding Crimea . Such an agreement would significantly reduce the possibility of an escalation in this conflict.

Fourth, we must demand more accountability for the billions of taxpayer dollars spent on this war. Transparency must start with Ukrainian government employee and teacher pensions, which are currently funded by US taxpayer dollars. I think we can all agree that this situation needs to end.

This spring is a crucial period for the war, as a new offensive by the Ukrainian army is likely to begin. If we really hope for a solution to this conflict, we must have well-defined goals, and we must be able to communicate them clearly./By Tom Nichols "The Atlantic"/Adapted from CNA.al