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What can Ukraine's new counteroffensive achieve?

2023-05-18 07:41:00, Blog CNA

What can Ukraine's new counteroffensive achieve?

Illustrative photo

The Ukrainian officer calls us through the "Google Meet" application just 5 minutes before our interview, sending the link from the neighborhoods located somewhere in the southwestern region of Ukraine, Zaporizhzhia. He refuses to tell us exactly where.

The lieutenant colonel and the reconnaissance unit he commands were sent to this part of the front at the end of February this year. Since then, they have been monitoring the front lines and mapping the trenches dug by Russian troops. Drones, satellite imagery, frontline reconnaissance missions: The Ukrainian unit has used all the tools at its disposal.

"Of course, the members of this unit are tired," says the commander. In the first weeks of the war, they helped stop the initial Russian attack on the capital Kiev. In the fall of 2022, they were part of the liberation of Kherson, the last major military success for the Ukrainians.

Soon, they are likely to participate in another vital battle, which may dictate future developments in this war. Over the past few months, the leadership in Kiev has been preparing a large-scale counteroffensive.

New combat units have been formed and heavy weaponry has been sent from NATO member countries, including battle tanks, self-propelled guns and armored vehicles. The Ukrainian military has been training tens of thousands of new troops, some at bases inside Ukraine and others in places like Britain, Poland and elsewhere, under the watchful direction of American and German military personnel.

Ukraine intends to send at least 12 new brigades to the front, with up to 50,000 troops. Their aim is to overcome the positions well defended by the Russians, and to liberate as much occupied territory in the south and east of the country as possible. However, the Ukrainians are not only facing the Russian army.

They are also trying to maintain the support of public opinion in the West. If the counteroffensive does not yield visible results, support in Ukraine's partner countries may begin to erode. In addition, political changes in NATO member countries - especially a possible victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential elections next year - could jeopardize future aid and arms shipments. As to where and when Ukrainian troops will attack, this information is known to only a few people in the top Ukrainian military and government leadership positions. But it is widely believed that a counter-offensive is likely to begin soon. Maybe in just a few weeks or even a few days.

The lieutenant colonel in Zaporizhzhia says that new units trained in the West were deployed only in recent weeks to his front section. "The fighting for several months has been something positive for the morale of the troops. The new troops are very well trained and equipped. But they have not fought before. Real battlefield experience cannot be replaced no matter how good the training. It remains to be seen how well the new troops are prepared" - says the Ukrainian soldier.

The lieutenant colonel says Ukrainian troops in the region are facing soldiers from the Russian regular army, along with members of the Russian National Guard and special forces from the GRU, Russia's military intelligence agency. The latter, says the lieutenant colonel, have better discipline and morale than regular troops, who sometimes drink too much alcohol and do not always obey orders.

But he points out that he has not seen any Russian paratroopers, who are considered particularly tough and were responsible for a significant number of Ukrainian casualties in Kherson. "They are probably all in Donbas" - he says. Despite being shaken by the bombardment, the Russian lines are well-fortified.

As can be seen in the satellite images, the defensive positions are secured in a 3-fold way: with trenches, minefields and obstacles known as "dragon's teeth". It is unclear whether the new Ukrainian units will attack in this country.

The deployment somewhere could easily be a ruse to confuse the Russians, and distract them from a breakthrough elsewhere in the country. Russia continues to hold almost 1/6 of Ukraine's territory, including almost all of the Luhansk region in the east of the country, along with significant parts of the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.

So there are a number of points that can be targeted by the counterattack. The Ukrainian leadership could mass its troops together for a single major attack, or launch an endless series of smaller attacks over the next several months at various locations along the front.

The army of Kiev can attack in Zaporizhzhia, and simultaneously try to reach the eastern banks of the Dnieper River in Kherson. An advance through the town of Vuhledar towards Mariupol is possible, as is an attack on the Kupiansk and Svatove area in an attempt to cut Russian supply lines to its troops in Donbas.

But if there is a nerve center for the Russian military presence in Ukraine, it is the city of Melitopol in the southern part of the Zaporizhzhia region. An important railway hub, about 65 kilometers behind the front, the city is vital for Russian logistics in southern Ukraine.

A Ukrainian advance on Melitopol would not only drive a wedge between Russian troops in the south and those in the east, but could also jeopardize Russian supply lines in Crimea, which Moscow annexed in 2014. This strategic importance explains why the Russian positions north of the city are so heavily fortified.

Meanwhile, leaders in Kiev have recently begun to try to lower expectations for this counterattack. "People outside Ukraine are waiting for something big. But I am afraid that such expectations can lead to an emotional disappointment"- Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov recently told the American newspaper "Washington Post.

The imminent Ukrainian counteroffensive will have its own character, says Franc-Stefan Gedi, a military expert at the Institute for International Strategic Studies in London. He believes that a slow advance, similar to that in Kherson, is more likely to happen than a rapid, large-scale attack like in Kharkiv.

Ukraine will also have at its disposal 230 Western battle tanks, in addition to 1,550 armored vehicles and at least 260 more cannons. Gedi believes that no single weapon system decides the fate of a war, as it is all about the use of weapons in combination with tactics.

According to him, German Panzerhaubitze 2000 artillery and Leopard 2 tanks will continue to be key in future battles, as well as modern air defense systems. But the human factor is not needed either. "War is always chaos. A capable commander turns it into organized chaos" - underlines Gedi, who visited the city of Bakhmut at the beginning of March.

Especially in offensive operations, he says, it is vital that decisions are delegated to individual commanders at the field level. Only they are really able to react to changes faster and take advantage of the spaces that can appear to them. Gedi believes that any counterattack can be considered a success only if it secures long-term support from the West.

Taken with abbreviations/ Adapted from CNA.al