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Biden was wrong with his approach to the Balkans, nationalist leaders with expansionist goals should no longer be tolerated

2023-09-27 21:05:00, Blog Kurt W.Bassuener

Biden was wrong with his approach to the Balkans, nationalist leaders with

The Western Balkans, that is the countries of the former Yugoslavia that remain outside the European Union plus Albania, are currently as unstable as they were 22 years ago, when the joint efforts of the United States and the European Union ended a decade of conflict wars. armed in what is now called North Macedonia.

In some respects, the region is significantly less stable and secure than it was then, given the vast changes that have taken place since then. People in the region have very little faith in their governments, as well as in the future of their country, emigrating at an ever-accelerating rate.

This phenomenon is easily visible both in the suburbs and in their capitals and main cities. The most visible sign of instability was the violence in Northern Kosovo due to the placement of Albanian leaders in Serb-majority municipalities. Dozens of NATO troops were injured in those riots, in a scenario that appeared highly organized and coordinated behind the scenes from Belgrade. However, both the US and the EU blamed Pristina and not Belgrade.

Meanwhile in Belgrade, 2 months of popular demonstrations were fueled by anger at a government that was too paranoid and self-absorbed to recognize the need for a humane and political response to 2 unprecedented gun massacres in a few days for Serbia.

Demonstrators went from demanding a decent response from the government to this situation, to calling for an end to the regime of President Aleksandar Vucic. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Serbian separatist leadership under Milorad Dodik has further escalated its challenge to the very existence of the federal state.

And this has come shortly after the US pressed for changes to electoral rules and structures that benefit nationalist parties, a move fully supported by the EU as well as Croatia, a NATO member.

So it is clear that across the region, those with unfulfilled nationalist agendas, whether separatist or hegemonist, have greater enthusiasm and self-confidence than they once did, when those same agendas were followed by armed struggle. What's worse, some mask these irredentist actions with the language of democracy, while others in the region who want to live in societies based on the professed liberal values ??of the West are seeing their capitals and leadership aligned. on the side of non-liberals and autocrats. The current dynamics taking place in the aforementioned countries and in the rest of the Western Balkans (including Albania, Montenegro and North Macedonia) have the same driving factors behind them.

But among them is Washington's controversial approach. The latter is showing a complete resignation from moral principles and often cynicism, behaviors that are completely incompatible with the vision of the American leadership for the preservation of democratic values.

Paradoxically, this approach has become especially evident since the beginning of Russia's full-scale attempt to subdue Ukraine, an act that has fostered the greatest transatlantic unity in the post-Cold War era. A number of elements in the Biden-Blinken policy became apparent from the start.

The main focus in foreign policy would be the challenge posed by China. The chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021 reflected this mentality, as did the Geneva Summit in June of the same year with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The prevailing mindset seems to be based on the conclusion that the region is tribal at its core, and that this is not about to change. Therefore, the best that can be done is to manage things within this framework. Yet there is no apparent comprehensive strategy to address the economic and political problems that continue to fuel the current dynamics.

The consequence of this approach is that those who persistently pursue nationalist and hegemonic agendas within and towards the region must be tolerated and approached to "de-conflict" relations and reduce US foreign policy spending.

And who are the main beneficiaries of this policy? It is the most powerful countries that had hegemonic agendas in the wars of the 1990s. First and foremost is Vu?i?'s Serbia, with its de facto regional policy of Srpski Svet (Serbian World), an analogue of "Russkiy Mir ” (Russian World), which sees neighboring Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and of course Kosovo (which remains unknown to Belgrade), as areas of legitimate Serbian politics and ultimately domination due to the ethnic Serbian population.

Even the Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama has used the opportunity to play the role of the regional ethnic leader, but this tendency of his does not seem to reflect an irredentist ambition among his citizens. Consequently, Albania is being affected by the bad practices of its ruling elite.

When asked about foreign policy strategy, US officials give variations on aspirations and destinations, but do not articulate a strategy per se. The people in the region have received the message of who the true partners of the West are: the leaders of these countries, regardless of their violations of democratic norms.

American moral and political credibility is currently fading in a region where the US once had greater influence than even the EU. The Western Balkans today carries a number of troubling dynamics, but it also retains the potential to move forward.

The United States and the West cannot control all domestic and regional dynamics, but they can fundamentally change the current incentive structure and sense of the possible, for both leaders and citizens.

The first step in changing the current approach should be the deployment of a sufficient deterrent force - possibly including US forces, under the auspices of NATO - starting from Br?ko (Bërçko), which is the breaker of the independence ambitions of Republika Srpska.

Taken with cuts

Note: Kurt W. Bassuener, co-founder of the Council for Democratizing Policies, a Berlin-based think tank./ “ Dtt.net ” - Translated and adapted by CNA





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