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Michael Burry's silent bet on Venezuelan oil is coming back into focus.
The investor best known for "The Big Short" has stated that he has been the owner of Valero Energy since 2020, a position he sees as increasingly attractive as the US moves towards a deeper role in reviving Venezuela's oil industry.
“Understand that many Gulf Coast refineries were built specifically for heavy Venezuelan crude,” Burry wrote in a blog post on Monday on Substack.
“So they have been operating with suboptimal feedstocks for years. This, over time, will produce better profit margins for jet fuel, asphalt and diesel... I have held Valero since 2020 and am more determined to hold it even longer after this weekend.”
His comments came after President Donald Trump urged U.S. oil companies to invest in Venezuela following the ouster of President Nicolás Maduro. Venezuela, a founding member of OPEC, sits on the world's largest proven crude oil reserves. The country's oil is among the heaviest and most sulfur-laden in the world, and only a limited number of refineries are equipped to process it efficiently.
Valero stands out because of its ability to process heavy crude, but Burry said smaller refiners like PBF Energy and HF Sinclair could also benefit, even if Venezuelan oil arrives only gradually. Any meaningful recovery in exports is likely to take years.
Many Wall Street analysts are also pointing to Valero as the biggest beneficiary if Venezuelan supply increases. The refiner's shares rose about 10% on Monday.
The opportunity could extend beyond refining. Venezuela's oil infrastructure has deteriorated after decades of underinvestment, creating potential demand for U.S. oilfield services companies if large-scale rehabilitation begins, Burry said.
Burry said he owns Halliburton and also sees positive opportunities for Schlumberger and Baker Hughes which could be exploited to help rebuild pipelines and refineries.
“Venezuelan pipelines and refineries are old and in bad shape. This work will go to American contractors,” he said. “Chevron is already there. Exxon and others have been suing for decades and could see justice relatively quickly if the US starts running Venezuela as some have suggested. I own Halliburton and I could buy more shares or LEAP.”
LEAPs, or long-term equity prediction securities, are options with long expiration dates that can go beyond a year./ CNA
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