US-Iran ceasefire nears end/ 4 scenarios of what could happen

2026-04-21 15:06:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

The US and Iran have exchanged threats as the ceasefire between the two countries is set to expire in the coming hours.

The two-week ceasefire, announced by US President Donald Trump on April 7, was due to expire at 8pm Washington time on Tuesday (midnight GMT, 3:30am in Tehran and 5am in Islamabad on Wednesday). However, Trump has indicated in recent comments that he has already pushed the deadline back a day.

As Islamabad continues its preparations to host multi-day talks, there has been no confirmation yet from Iranian officials whether they will attend.

Scenario 1: Negotiations take place and a provisional agreement is reached

Pakistan has aimed for the US and Iran to agree to several days of negotiations.

For the US, Vance is expected to be joined by envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, the same team that participated in the first round of talks. If the Iranians come, parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf is expected to lead their delegation again, which will include Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

Mediators in Islamabad aim to reach a "memorandum of understanding" between the US and Iran to buy time to reach a final agreement and extend the ceasefire.

Scenario 2: Talks end without progress, but with an extension of the ceasefire

For there to be any significant progress in the talks, there must be compromises from both sides because at the moment there is too much of a gap to reach an agreement.

Trump has doubled down on his insistence in recent days that Iran halt all uranium enrichment and surrender its current stockpile of enriched uranium. Iran has rejected these demands.

However, even in the absence of progress in a second round of talks, the two sides could agree to some kind of temporary extension of the ceasefire, which would give diplomacy another chance.

Scenario 3: No talks, but the ceasefire is extended

Trump told Bloomberg News on Monday that he considers the ceasefire over Wednesday evening Washington time and said it was highly unlikely he would extend it if a deal is not reached.

Still, a last-minute post on his Truth Social platform extending the ceasefire wouldn't necessarily be surprising, analysts said, even if Iran refuses to show up for talks in Islamabad. However, the war has already fundamentally changed the US-Iran equation.

Scenario 4: Talks fail and the ceasefire expires

Trump's repeated threats to resume bombing Iran in the absence of a deal also open up a fourth scenario: If Iranian negotiators do not travel to Islamabad for talks, this threat will be put to the test.

Trump told PBS News on Monday when asked about what would happen if the ceasefire expired, that Iran had to be there for the negotiations.

But if the ceasefire collapses, the next round is likely to get very ugly very quickly. The US is likely to target critical infrastructure in Iran, which in turn will ignite the rest of the region./AlJazeera