Banks concerned about external shocks and developments in the property market

2025-09-30 07:30:00, Ekonomi CNA

The results of the survey on the perception of systemic risks in the country by the banking sector for the first half of this year have shown an increasing trend in external and internal macroeconomic risks, while the assessment of market risks has been generally declining.

The banking sector has classified the “risk of external shocks” and the risk of “deterioration of the domestic economy” as the two main systemic risks. The assessment of the risk of external shocks appears higher compared to previous periods.

Volatile economic developments in the external environment, such as the escalation of trade protectionism between the US and trading partners following the significant increase in import tariffs, the volatility of values ??and increased sensitivity in financial markets, as well as the continuation of geopolitical tensions (especially the conflict in the Gaza Strip, clashes between Israel and Iran, the war in Ukraine), seem to have increased banks' concern about the risk of transferring negative shocks from abroad, classifying it as the most important systemic risk of the period.

As for domestic developments, the risk related to fluctuations in the value of real estate has continued to remain among the main risks and the perception about it has further increased.

Recent dynamics in the real estate market and the continued increase in prices have increased banks' concerns about their future performance, given that a significant portion of their loan portfolios are exposed to the activity of this market. This has been reflected in the rapid increase in the assessment of this risk during the period.

The risk of cyber attacks continued to be included in the list of the most important risks of the period, but the assessment for it remained unchanged.

The increase in the digitalization of banking activity in the country has simultaneously increased the risk of cyber attacks, episodes of which have been present in recent years, occasionally damaging the normal continuation of activity. However, the level of awareness of the banking sector about this risk has increased significantly and a good part of them declare that they have already taken concrete measures to improve the relevant protection systems.

On the other hand, the perception of market risks that may arise from exchange rate fluctuations, interest rate changes, lack of liquidity, etc., has remained at minimal or declining levels.

In general terms, banks perceive that the possibility of one or more of the above-mentioned risks materializing in the short-term (up to one year) and medium-term (1-3 years) future is currently below average and unchanged compared to the end of last year.

Despite current developments and challenges, the good financial situation of the banking sector and abundant liquidity have caused banks' confidence in the stability of the financial system in the future to remain above average and unchanged./ Monitor