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Polls: Meloni expected to lose by a small margin in the justice referendum

2026-03-23 15:49:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

Polls published today showed that Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is set to lose a referendum on her major reform of the judicial system by a narrow margin, dealing a potential blow to the governing coalition ahead of next year's general election.

The opposition-backed "No" camp secured between 49% and 53% of the vote, compared with 47% to 51% for the government's "Yes" campaign, according to polls by Opinio for state broadcaster RAI and S?G for television channel La7.

Youtrend pollsters give 51.5% of the votes "No" versus 48.5% for "Yes".

Voter turnout was close to 60%, much higher than expected after a fierce campaign that revealed a deep and mutual animosity between the right-wing coalition and Italy's judiciary that will leave lasting scars.

If exit polls are accurate, the defeat could mark a turning point for Meloni, taking away her image as a winner in the eyes of the Italian electorate after four years of victories in local and national elections.

Conversely, the result could reinvigorate the fragmented center-left, giving the two largest opposition parties, the Democratic Party and the 5-Star Movement, the impetus to create a broad alliance to confront Meloni and her allies.

Meloni plans to stay in office despite referendum

While Meloni has ruled out the option of resigning because of the result, avoiding the fate of former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, whose term ended abruptly after a failed constitutional referendum in 2016, a defeat would leave him vulnerable, according to analysts.

Pollsters said on the eve of the vote that many of those who voted "No" were likely doing so to express dissatisfaction with the Meloni administration rather than to deal with the content of the highly technical reform.

The referendum proposed the separation of powers of judges and public prosecutors, as well as the division of the self-governing body of magistrates, the High Council of the Judiciary (CSM), into two sections, with members chosen by lot instead of being elected.

The government argued that the changes were necessary to make the judiciary more accountable for its mistakes, to eliminate potential bias in the system against defendants, and to prevent politically motivated factions from distributing high positions to their supporters.

According to the government itself, the changes would not have addressed one of the main problems affecting Italy - a notoriously slow legal system that weighs on the economy. The magistrates' union and opposition parties said the reform would erode judicial autonomy, giving Meloni de facto control over the judiciary, something she denied. The referendum victory is likely to encourage the prime minister to press ahead with other major constitutional changes, such as directly electing the prime minister.

The potential rejection by voters leaves her weakened at home as she faces a stagnant economy and complex international challenges. It could also weaken her position in Europe, where she was previously seen as unexpectedly resilient and stable. / Reuters