World population: Growth until 2084, then decline begins

2024-07-15 08:34:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

World population: Growth until 2084, then decline begins

Photography: Ashish Vaishnav/

Only from the year 2084 will the world's population shrink again, to just under ten billion people. This comes from the new world population forecast that the United Nations (UN) published this week. today on World Population Day in New York.

Even the Federal Institute for Population Research (BiB) in Germany presented some trends. According to the researchers, women around the world are having one fewer child on average today than in 1990. The decline in births has affected all regions in recent decades, they say. Currently, women around the world have an average of 2.2 children.

However, due to the inertia of demographic processes, it will take until 2084 before the world population reaches its maximum. After that, the declining number of births is expected to be overtaken by the increasing number of deaths. The world's population will not only age, it will also begin to shrink.

The age structure is remarkably young in sub-Saharan Africa

BiB's Frank Swiaczny sees sub-Saharan Africa - ie. countries in sub-Saharan Africa - as a key region for population growth in the coming decades. While a growing number of countries are recording higher death tolls, the birth rate there still averages 4.3 children per woman. By the end of the century, this region will continue to see population growth, from today's 1.2 to 3.4 billion people, even if the birth rate falls to two children per woman.

The reason for population growth in sub-Saharan Africa lies in the extremely young age structure, says Jan Kreutzberg, Executive Director of the German Foundation for World Population (DSW). In this region of the world, where more than 40 percent of people are under 15, many girls give birth too early and often more children than they can care for. In addition, in many cases, teenage pregnancy means the end of school life, depriving women and girls of the opportunity to get an education and earn an independent income.

Equal rights for women are not only essential for sustainable population development in sub-Saharan Africa, points out Catherina Hinz, Director of the Berlin Institute for Population and Development: "Only if girls and women have equal access to education, work and health care, they can lead a life of self-determination, especially when it comes to family planning." /DW