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Campbell: Trump's choice of Vance, worrying for Ukraine

2024-07-16 09:05:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

The former American president, Donald Trump, who will compete again in the presidential elections in November, chose the Ohio senator, JD Vance, as his vice presidential candidate.

W. Joseph Campbell, a professor of communications at American University, told RFE/RL that Vance has been highly critical of US aid to Ukraine and that his selection sends a signal about policies Trump may pursue toward Ukraine, if it wins.

Campbell says the choice of Vance - although it has been floated as a name - was surprising, given that he was a critic of Trump.

Trump was officially confirmed on Monday as the candidate of the Republican Party in the November 5 election. His opponent will be the current president of the USA, Joe Biden.

Radio Free Europe: Professor Campbell Donald Trump chose JD Vance as his running mate - a 39-year-old senator who has been in office for just over two years. Why JD Vance?

W. Joseph Campbell: In my opinion, Trump thinks this is a generational election, that by electing someone so young compared to himself - since he's in his late 70s - the MAGA (Making America Great Again) program that Trump has supported since 2015, will live on even after his departure from the political scene.

Vance is an uninspiring choice, as he is a young senator. He comes from the state of Ohio, which has become much redder [vj more Republican] in recent election cycles.

I'm not sure it helps Trump much in Ohio, or if it has a ripple effect in other states like Pennsylvania or Michigan that border Ohio. Those are very important states in terms of the electoral college, but I don't think independent, undecided voters will find this selection very inspiring.

For me, the best choice would be Glenn Youngkin, governor of Virginia, who has been in office for several years. He would even help Trump in that state.

Youngkin is not 39 years old, but he is not old either. So I think it would be a better choice overall. Radio Free Europe: Do you think, then, that this is a sign that Trump believes he is going to win and, therefore, he has been able to pick someone who will not necessarily increase the number of votes for him?

W. Joseph Campbell: Vance's name has long been floated as a possible vice presidential candidate, so it's not a new name and it's not a big surprise.

Since his name has been floating around for a while now, I think Trump sees Vance as sort of a safe pick for the Republican base.

But, I also think that Vance is someone who is a bit unpredictable - at least in his recent past. He was not a Trump supporter when Trump entered the race in 2016, for example. In fact, I think he has declared that he will never be his supporter.

That past of his, I think, makes this election a little surprising, because Donald Trump is someone who holds a grudge. He has been known to hold grudges for years.

Radio Free Europe: How would you describe Vance as a politician? What are its advantages? What are its minuses? Is his youth a plus?

W. Joseph Campbell: I think his age is, of course, a plus. It comes from a heavily Republican state, and that's a plus — not that Trump has much to worry about carrying Ohio in November, but it helps cement his base nonetheless.

He seems to speak quite well, he is articulate. He is the author of a best-selling book about his life. I think she'll do very well in debates — say against [the current vice president] Kamala Harris.

But I do not know. Vice presidential nominations usually do not swing the vote one way or the other. They don't have a big effect on votes.

Sarah Palin, who was John McCain's choice in 2008, may be an exception because she was received so negatively. But, in general, vice presidential candidates are not a real help to the presidential ticket.

Radio Free Europe: If you're a European leader, Emmanuel Macron or Volodymyr Zelensky, and you've just watched this election... what are you thinking?

W. Joseph Campbell: I think Zelensky will be very worried about this election. Vance does not have a high opinion of continuing aid to Ukraine. And that should be a little worrisome, because it could signal what Trump really thinks about aid to Ukraine, should he win the presidency. But, of course, Americans in general are more nervous about the war in Ukraine. It's been going on for over two years and it's getting to a point where people are asking: what are we spending all this money on and what are we getting in return? So Vance is somewhat in this camp, and it will be a real concern - I'm sure - for some European leaders, especially Zelensky.

I don't think Vance has great foreign policy credentials, but that's not really a requirement for a vice presidential candidate.

We have to go back in history to find a vice presidential candidate who was really involved in foreign policy. George HW Bush to Ronald Reagan in the 80s was an example, perhaps.

RFE/RL: In terms of the people he would pick for his administration, does that give some kind of hint that Trump won't go with people from the establishment, that he feels more confident this time around?

W. Joseph Campbell: I think that may be the case. It's also clear that a lot of people who worked for Donald Trump — a lot of establishment people as you said — didn't have a good time. John Bolton is an example. He has had very good foreign policy credentials, but he has not had a good experience with Trump.

Radio Free Europe: So do you think we'll see a lot of so-called MAGA-people in the administration? And, is this something that should worry NATO's partners, allies?

W. Joseph Campbell: It can happen. Of course, if Trump wins the election. This election cycle, in 2024, has been full of drama and unpredictability. And it's hard to say whether we'll have another round of surprises like we've had in the last two or three weeks.

I think we should be alert for any kind of surprise in late summer, October, early November. Surely there will be something that can influence the discourse again in this election.

But — to answer your question — I think it's likely that Trump will bring into his administration, if he wins, many supporters who share his philosophies, his views, and his political positions.

Of course, it is difficult to say who those potential candidates are. But I don't think we'll see people like Bill Barr in administration again. He was the Attorney General in the latter part of the Trump years. I doubt he would come back for another round./ Rel