Diaspora votes, "determinative" in the formation of new institutions in Kosovo

2026-06-10 08:12:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

Diaspora votes, "determinative" in the formation of new institutions

The still uncounted votes of the diaspora for the early parliamentary elections on June 7 are expected to have greater weight and be decisive in the formation of Kosovo's new institutions, experts in political developments estimate.

According to the Central Election Commission (CEC), 104,480 voters were registered to vote by mail, while 22,414 people voted in Kosovo's 30 diplomatic missions around the world.

But, to understand the exact number of votes from abroad, they must first be verified, a process that began on Tuesday afternoon.

Eugen Cakolli, a researcher at the Kosovo Democratic Institute (KDI), tells Radio Free Europe that the large number of votes expected to be confirmed as valid – which he estimates could be over 100,000 – will have an “extremely significant” impact on the final outcome of the elections and consequently on the distribution of mandates in the 120-seat Kosovo Assembly.

"If we take into account the trends of 2025, namely those of December, and assuming that the Vetëvendosje Movement would perform the same, this entity could go up to 53 mandates, which means an increase of five mandates, which under normal circumstances would take two from the Democratic Party of Kosovo, two from the Democratic League of Kosovo and one from the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo, but always depending on the performance of these political entities themselves ," says Cakolli.

Based on preliminary results – which include only regular votes – the Vetëvendosje Movement won 42.95 percent of the vote or 48 seats, the Democratic Party of Kosovo 21.14 percent of the vote or 24 seats, the Democratic League of Kosovo won 17.60 percent of the vote or 20 seats, and the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo – an entity that recently decided to be known as the Alliance – won 7.16 percent of the vote or eight seats.

Cakolli from KDI says that ultimately, the number of mandates in the Assembly will determine "who will have the greatest chances" of forming Kosovo's new institutions.

According to the Constitution of Kosovo, the Speaker of the Assembly of Kosovo and the Government are elected by a majority of the votes of the deputies, that is, 61. According to the Constitution, the position of Speaker of the Assembly belongs to the party that comes out first in the elections, in this case the Vetëvendosje Movement.

Also, after the constitution of the Assembly, it is up to this entity to first propose the prime minister for the Government. The highest legal act of the state provides that in the case of the executive, the baton can be passed to other parties, in case the winner of the elections fails to form a majority. However, this remains at the discretion of the president, in the current case of the acting president of Kosovo, Albulena Haxhiu, who comes from the ranks of the Vetëvendosje Movement.

In the previous legislature, resulting from the December 28 elections, the LVV secured 57 seats in the Assembly and, with the support of eight MPs from non-majority communities, managed to secure a parliamentary majority and form the Government.

Of the 120 seats in the Assembly, 20 are reserved for non-majority communities: ten for non-Serb communities and ten for the Serb community. As for the ten seats for the Serb community, based on the results so far, the Serbian List will win nine of them and one seat will go to Nenad Raši?'s Party for Freedom, Justice and Survival.

"Knowing that subjects from the communities are expected to be represented with an identical number of mandates, and perhaps even deputies, in the new legislature, this means that there will be up to two deputies from non-Serb communities, who may have an influence on determining whether we will have institutions or not ," Cakolli tells Radio Free Europe.

The influence of foreign votes on the final election result, according to Cakolli, has increased this time also due to the low turnout in the elections in Kosovo.

On June 7, turnout was 37.02 percent – ??or 725,488 voters – lower than the December elections, when 906,754 people or 45.36 percent of the electorate voted.

Regarding the expected impact of votes from the diaspora, Lirim Krasniqi, director of the non-governmental organization "Germin", which deals with diaspora issues, also agrees.

"The weight of votes from abroad in the final result could be among the highest so far in Kosovo's electoral history," he tells Radio Free Europe.

Comparing it with previous votes, Krasniqi says that this time it is expected that there will be more votes from abroad.

"Based on the experience of past elections and the high number of voters registered for postal voting, it can be expected that the total number of postal votes will be around 80 thousand, and the total number of votes from outside Kosovo will exceed 100 thousand ," he says.

The June 7 elections saw the highest number of voters registered to vote from abroad, with over 132,000 applications.

After including diaspora votes, Cakolli expects the overall turnout in the election to be around 41 percent.

"Trends show that we have an increased interest among voters in the diaspora and a decrease in interest [in voting] among voters in Kosovo."

According to Cakolli, if the trend of decreasing voter turnout in Kosovo continues in the future, and that of those living outside the decision increases, the impact of votes from the diaspora could be even greater.

"So, in December there were two or three [seats], while now we are calculating the fifth. If such a trend continues, [the influence of votes from the diaspora] could increase even more in the future," says Cakolli.

While regular domestic votes – which are usually counted in classrooms immediately after polling stations close – were counted within a few hours on Sunday – election authorities must now also count conditional votes and votes from people with special needs, in addition to those from the diaspora.

The CEC plans to announce the final election results on June 26 and certify them on July 6, but these deadlines are only estimates, as they will also depend on the complaints that parties may file regarding the process. /REL