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Oil market defies predictions of summer supply shortages

2026-06-09 19:04:15, Ekonomi CNA

Predictions of a severe oil shortage this summer have not materialized, despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important arteries of the global oil trade. Instead of a price explosion, the market has shown unexpected resilience.

In recent months, many analysts had warned that the disruption of oil flows from the Persian Gulf, combined with high seasonal summer demand, could lead to major shortages and prices above $100 per barrel.

However, the price of Brent crude oil has remained below this level, fluctuating around $90-95 per barrel. One of the main reasons is the sharp decline in oil imports from China.

According to estimates, Chinese imports have fallen by about 5-6 million barrels per day, significantly easing pressure on global markets and leaving more supplies available for other consumers, especially in Asia.

Another factor has been the intensive use of strategic and commercial oil reserves. Developed countries and energy companies have released large quantities of reserves to compensate for supply shortages.

This has helped keep prices under control, but analysts warn that this is a temporary solution.

According to experts, the current calm could be deceptive. Global inventories are falling rapidly and reserves are approaching minimum operating levels in some regions. If demand increases during the summer months or China returns to the market with larger purchases, the balance could quickly change.

Although the market has defied predictions of an imminent supply crisis, uncertainties remain high.

Analysts warn that a prolongation of geopolitical tensions or a delay in the restoration of normal oil flows could cause sharp price fluctuations in the coming months. For now, the global oil market is showing itself to be more resilient than many experts expected, but this resilience is based on factors that may not last forever./Financial Times