Germany will lack millions of workers by 2060

2023-05-09 08:52:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

Germany will lack millions of workers by 2060

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Experts believe that far fewer workers will be available in Germany in the coming decades. How can the problem be solved?

According to expert forecasts, the number of people in the German labor market by 2060 will probably decrease from 45.7 to 40.4 million. According to the Institute for Labor Market Research and Occupations (IAB), the potential labor force will decrease by 11.7 percent in this period, taking into account factors such as demographic changes, birth rates, immigration and emigration. "The results show that companies will have significantly fewer workers available in the coming decades," says IAB economist Enzo Weber.

More women and older people in the labor market

This estimate takes into account countermeasures and multiple external factors such as economic and demographic developments abroad, as well as fertility. Without these measures, the number of workers available in the market will be even smaller. According to the study, only the employment rate of women and the elderly will develop positively in the coming years.

For German women under the age of 55, experts assume that the rate will increase from 87 to 93 percent, while for women of foreign origin from 67 to 77 percent. The calculations are based on the assumption that the birth rate will increase from 1.5 to 1.7 children per woman.

"Third countries are becoming more and more important for the EU when it comes to migration for employment reasons. So barriers need to be removed, but at the same time more needs to be done to ensure that migrants gain a foothold in the labor market and find long-term prospects in Germany", says Weber.

Will the population decrease?

According to the study, immigration from EU countries, such as Poland or Romania, will be significantly reduced. While an average of 900,000 people from EU countries came to Germany in the last ten years, in 2060, according to the study, it will be only 600,000.

On the other hand, immigration from third countries will increase from 240,000 to 500,000 people per year. But emigration from Germany should also be taken into account: according to estimates, from the current 750,000, it will reach a million people leaving the country every year.

According to estimates, only 72.6 million people will live in Germany in 2060, which is about ten million less than today. Above all, immigration from other EU countries is likely to drop significantly as living conditions there improve and at the same time the demographic situation is sometimes even less favorable than in Germany./ DW