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SIPRI: The war in Ukraine is changing the flow of weapons

2024-03-11 16:09:03, Kosova & Bota CNA

The Ukraine war has a significant impact on the global arms trade. In its new report, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute SIPRI compares the period from 2019 to 2023 with that from 2014 to 2018 and finds numerous, sometimes dramatic, changes.

The volume of global arms trade has decreased by 3.3 percent compared to 2014-18. But arms imports to Europe have nearly doubled, largely because of the war in Ukraine. The bulk of arms shipments to Europe, 55 percent, came from the US. This is 20 percent more than in the period 2014-18, which is a clear sign that Europe has become even more dependent on the US.

The US is expanding its leadership position

Thanks to increased exports to Europe, the US managed to increase its global arms exports by 17 percent. The US share of the international arms trade also rose sharply from 34 to 42 percent. Worldwide, the US has supplied 107 countries with military equipment, more than in any previous five-year period. And that makes the United States the champion of the world.

"The US has expanded its global role as an arms supplier, an important aspect of this country's foreign policy," writes SIPRI's Mathew George, noting that this is happening at a time when "economic and geopolitical dominance of the US is being challenged by several rapidly developing economies".

In 2023, Ukraine was the largest arms importer in the world

It is no surprise that among European countries, Ukraine has dramatically increased its arms imports. While in the period 2014-18 its imports were modest, partly due to the fact that it produced many weapons itself and did not need imports, in the period 2019-23 (when Russia started the occupation war in 2022) it became the fourth largest importer largest in the world after India, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Its imports have increased by about 6,600 percent.

Whereas if you look only at the year 2023, Ukraine was the largest arms importer in the world. At the same time, it should be noted that the term "importer" is somewhat inaccurate, because the shipments to Ukraine were not only sales but also gifts of weapons.

The main suppliers of weapons to Ukraine in the period 2019-2023 were the USA with a volume of 39 percent, followed by Germany (14 percent) and Poland (13 percent).

Russia is lagging behind

As before, the five most important arms exporters in the world are the US, France, Russia, China and Germany. However, the order has changed from 2014-18, which is also related to the war in Ukraine. Because France has replaced Russia in second place. While Russian exports fell sharply by 53 percent, French exports increased by 47 percent. The number of countries receiving Russian military equipment has also dropped dramatically. While in 2019, 31 other countries bought weapons from Moscow, in 2023 there were only 12. The most important are India and China.

These two countries have continued trading with Russia even when it comes to other goods, such as oil and gas. "In other cases, the United States and European countries put pressure on potential buyers of Russian weapons," Pieter Wezeman, one of the report's authors, told DW. "An example is Egypt, which wanted to buy Russian fighter jets and was under pressure from the US, while now it has turned to France."

France's strategy

SIPRI: The war in Ukraine is changing the flow of weapons

Pieter Wezeman explains the rise of France with its sovereign strategy: "Paris wants to use military power whenever it wants, without depending on the weapons of other countries. For this to be possible, the arms industry is needed. But for them to preserve it, France needs exports, otherwise everything would be very expensive".

French arms exports have grown significantly over the past ten years. Rafale fighter jets are selling particularly well, as are submarines and frigates from French shipyards. The biggest buyer for the Rafale was India, which trades with Russia, but also with Western countries.

Africa imports far fewer weapons

While Europe almost doubled its arms imports, Africa almost halved its imports. The import decline in Africa is mainly the result of significantly lower imports in the two most important importing countries: Algeria, which accounts for 77 percent of arms imports, and Morocco, which accounts for 46 percent.

The most important arms supplier to Africa is Russia, followed by the US and China. Therefore, Africa is a region that continues to buy a lot of weapons from Russia, it is a region where Russia is expanding its military position.

German exports

SIPRI: The war in Ukraine is changing the flow of weapons

Germany remained in fifth place in the list of the largest exporters. The main export regions of German arms are the Near and Middle East. However, German arms exports have decreased by 14 percent. But the decline is relative, Wezeman says, because the previous five-year period was extremely successful due to large orders, especially submarines.

But 2023 was a particularly good year for the German arms industry. "Of course, this is about helping Ukraine with arms," ??says Peter Wezeman, "but it's also about sending submarines to Singapore and frigates and corvettes to Israel and Egypt."/ DW