Changes in the government, is Putin preparing for a long war?

2024-05-14 13:20:55, Kosova & Bota CNA

Changes in the government, is Putin preparing for a long war?

Russian President Vladimir Putin

President Vladimir Putin reshuffled his cabinet on Sunday, appointing Andrei Belousov, an economist who has held the role of Russia's deputy prime minister for the first time, as the new defense minister, replacing Sergei Shoigu.

Mr. Shoigu, the only member of the government that President Putin replaced, was appointed Secretary of the National Security Council, a very powerful advisory position to the Kremlin, replacing Nikolai Patrushev, a longtime ally of Vladimir Putin. -it.

Like the President, Mr. Patrushev previously headed Russia's Federal Security Service, the successor to the Soviet KGB. The Federation Council, the upper house of the Russian parliament, must approve Mr. Belousov's appointment, a formality, of which there is no doubt.

VOA's Russian service spoke with three experts, who unanimously suggest that replacing Minister Shoigu with Andrei Belousov shows that Mr. Putin is preparing the country for a long war against Ukraine.

Richard Weitz, director of the Center for Political-Military Analysis at the Washington-based Hudson Institute, noted that there had been speculation for some time that Sergei Shoigu, who served as defense minister for 12 years, was planned to step down. years.

"There has been some concern over the pace of military reform under his leadership and then over the weakness of the Russian military in the first months of the war in Ukraine. And last year's rebellion by [Yevgeny] Prigozhin and the Wagner group was blamed on Shoigu and the chief of the General Staff at the time, General Valery Gerasimov,'' Mr. Weitz told VOA.

Andrei Belousov, proposed by President Putin as the new Minister of Defense

"I believe that Putin has decided that at this stage of the conflict, now that the Russian army is doing well operationally, but that it is clear that the war will last several years, he obviously wants to put in that position someone who has more economic knowledge. And this makes sense, if it is going to be a long war, the mobilization of the necessary resources to support it is required."

Mykola Sunhurovskyi, director of military programs at the Razumkov Center, a Kiev-based think tank, said a recent scandal involving Shoigu's deputy, Timur Ivanov, who was accused of taking $12 million in bribes, may have influenced the departure from the cabinet of the former Minister of Defense. But he agrees that the change is largely related to Mr. Putin's prediction that the war against Ukraine will be long.

"Shoigu is not a military man, he is not an economist, he is not an industrialist. But Mr. Belousov is a man who has worked for Russia's economic bloc for a long time. It has its roots in the Central Economic and Mathematical Institute, which for a period was the institution that led the creation of new standards for the Russian economy, since the 70s. He worked there for a period, in the mid-80s, in high positions, deputy minister, minister of Economic Development and for a while he was Putin's assistant", says Mr. Sunhurovskyi.

Likewise, Ukrainian military analyst Alexei Getman told "Voice of America" ??that the replacement of Shoigu with Belousov was dictated by the fact that Russia "is preparing for a long war" and therefore needed a minister of re Defense, which can organize the country's economy in accordance with this fact.

However, analyst Getman said Mr. Shoigu's departure should not necessarily be seen as a demotion or punishment.

"After all, he was neither taken on a well-deserved rest period nor put in prison, as is often the case in Russia," he said. "He became the Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation instead of Patrushev"./ VOA