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The decline in births accelerates, 26% fewer babies in 4 years

2025-05-21 08:22:00, Sociale CNA

Almost two years have passed since the 2023 census was conducted and the country still does not have an official annual population, but indirect data such as births and emigration show that the country's demographic profile is rapidly deteriorating.

In the first quarter of this year, 4,662 babies were born across the country, a 14% decrease compared to the same period in 2023.

From the first quarter of 2021 to 2025, births across the country have decreased by 26%. The pace of decline in births nationwide has accelerated after the pandemic. Comparing only the data for the first quarter, it is noted that the number of babies in the first quarter of 2019 was 15 percent lower than in the same period in 2011. The data shows that after the pandemic, especially with 2025, births have suffered a sharp decline in all regions.

In the northern regions, births are falling faster. Despite being ranked with the highest dependency ratio of the young population in age, Kukës suffered the largest drop in births nationwide at more than 22% in the first quarter of 2025 (see attached graph).

Kukës and Dibra, poor territories, faced high waves of emigration in the last decade. As a result, births in these areas fell by over a fifth within a year, INSTAT reported.

Births in Tirana have also suffered a sharp decline. The capital still has a strong internal migration flow, but the high cost of living, housing prices and trends towards fewer children have reduced fertility. Tirana is the only region that has a contrast, as the population is growing and is experiencing a sharp decline in births. In the first quarter of 2025, Tirana was the second in the country for the decline in births with 18%.

The coastal and southern regions have a milder decline in births. Vlora, Gjirokastra and Berat recorded single-digit decreases, having experienced strong declines in previous years and having had aging populations for years.

Although the country is experiencing economic growth, this is not being reflected in the improvement of demographic indicators. Economic growth and the decline in birth rates are going inversely proportional.

The only pro-birth policy known as the baby bonus of 40 thousand lek for the first child, 80 for the second, 120 thousand for the third, seems to be a symbolic value compared to the real cost of raising a child.

In most cases, the costs of housing, private education and the uncertainty of the job market prevent young couples from having children./ Monitor Magazine