US officials: Putin may scale back some of his Ukraine ambitions

2023-05-05 07:45:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

US officials: Putin may scale back some of his Ukraine ambitions

Illustrative photo

Vladimir Putin may abandon his plans to soon subdue Kiev and invade Ukraine, according to the latest assessment by senior US officials.

Representatives of US intelligence agencies have previously said that the Russian president believed that in order to fulfill his destiny, it would be necessary for him to invade Ukraine.

But as the war drags into its second year, American intelligence believes the Russian leader has somewhat accepted the reality on the ground.

"We estimate that Putin is likely to scale back his short-term ambitions to consolidate control over occupied territory in eastern and southern Ukraine, and to ensure that Ukraine never becomes a NATO member," he said. Thursday, Director of the National Intelligence Agency Avril Haines, before members of the Senate Armed Services Committee.

"Russian forces gained less ground in April than in the previous three months as they appeared to be shifting from offensive to defensive operations along the front line," Ms Haines said.

"Russian forces are facing significant ammunition shortages and are under significant personnel constraints," she added. "Unless Russia initiates a mandatory mobilization and secures significant supplies of munitions, beyond the existing shipments coming from Iran and elsewhere, it will be increasingly challenging for them to conduct offensive operations, whether these are modest," she added.

Ms Haines, echoing a warning from her testimony before Congress in March, said Russia and Ukraine were locked in a "brutal war in which no military has an absolute advantage".

Ukraine, she said, remains dependent on Western military aid to blunt Russia's advantage, while the Kremlin is being forced to rely more on threats and asymmetric tactics because of the degradation of its ground forces.

Russia's ground forces are "relying on reserves and spare equipment," said Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, director of the Military Intelligence Agency.

"They will need time to recover," he told lawmakers as he testified alongside Ms. Haines. "The estimates range from 5 to 10 years, looking at how the sanctions are affecting them and their ability to get the technology back up and running."

Mr. Berrier warned that however the degradation of the Russian ground forces, this should not be seen as an indicator of general weakness.

"Even though their ground forces are already degraded, they will rebuild them quickly," he said, calling Moscow still a major threat because of its nuclear capabilities, which have yet to be proven.

Asked whether Mr Putin might be inclined to use nuclear weapons to turn the tide of the war in Ukraine, US intelligence officials said so far, it was unlikely.

"We thought about a number of scenarios," Mr. Berrier told lawmakers. "At the moment, we think it's unlikely."

"From the perspective of the intelligence community it's highly unlikely," Ms Haines added.

The drone attack on the Kremlin

Like other senior US officials, Ms Haines and Mr Berrier urged caution over Russia's accusation that Ukraine was behind this week's drone attack on the Kremlin as part of an attempt to kill President Putin.

"The Ukrainian government has denied such a thing, and at this stage, we have no information that would allow us to provide an independent assessment on this matter," she said.

Ms Haines said it is a known fact that Vladimir Putin does not usually spend the night in the Kremlin, which casts some doubt on the Russian claim.

Mr. Berrier also said that some photographs suggested that the attack was organized by drones, which were controlled by someone on the ground and within sight of the Kremlin./ Voa