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Why are the Iraqi elections a test for Iran?

2025-11-05 19:46:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

The parliamentary elections to be held in Iraq on November 11 come at a time when Tehran's regional influence is weakening, and the election result could determine whether Iran will maintain its vital anchor in its sphere of influence, financing, and deterrence, or slip into a more costly and fragmented game of managing its allies from afar.

With the stalemate in Syria and increasing restrictions on Hezbollah – declared a terrorist organization by the United States – in Lebanon, Iraq has become a necessary stage to maintain economic access and restraint in Tehran's regional architecture.

"I think the parliamentary elections could be really crucial for Iran because if its preferred candidates perform poorly, that would be yet another event that goes badly for Tehran and could cause a ripple effect where Iranian power is seen as significantly weakened ," said Colin Clarke, executive director of the Soufan Center, a New York-based think tank.

If Iran fails to achieve the desired outcome, Clarke added, it will damage Tehran's image across the region, "making its leaders look weak."

Iran's difficult battle

For years, Iran has exerted influence in neighboring Iraq by supporting a number of Shiite parties and militias – some of which were founded by the Islamic Republic's Revolutionary Guard Corps.

But its influence has waned since the US killed Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani in 2020. Tehran's authority over these groups has waned since then, leaving room for discord and fragmentation.

Shiite factions within the Coordination Framework – a political alliance that includes Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani – are now divided over US-backed efforts to dismantle the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an umbrella organization of militias largely linked to Iran that was integrated into the Iraqi army in 2016.

Several Shiite lists, once coordinated under Tehran's patronage, now compete against each other, reflecting not only the fading of cohesion but also a move toward transactional, interest-based politics rather than unified pro-Iran lists.

In an effort to curb these rivalries, Iran earlier in October sent Soleimani's successor, Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani, to Baghdad. It is unclear whether his mission was successful.

“Iran is not in a good position and has been greatly weakened,” Clarke said. “The way Israel has been attacking Iran and its proxies has likely created suspicions among its supporters and patrons that its leaders can be less relied on than before.”

Preventing the situation from worsening

This weakening of influence has come as a result of broader regional defeats. Over the past two years, Israel has inflicted significant damage on Iran’s network and capabilities—from destroying the military leadership of the Palestinian group Hamas, which is designated a terrorist organization by the US, and its infrastructure in Gaza, to significantly weakening Hezbollah and striking Revolutionary Guard assets in Syria and inside Iran itself. The confrontation culminated in direct war in June, exposing major weaknesses on Iran’s part.

The weakening of Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's position in Syria contributed to the ouster of President Bashar al-Assad, a key ally that allowed Iran to transform Syria into a land corridor connecting its allies in Iraq and Lebanon.

For Tehran, Iraq now represents the closest and most necessary anchor for regional deterrence and political influence, at a time when alternatives in other Middle Eastern countries are increasingly narrowing.

If the election results disappoint Tehran, Clark expects persistence, not retreat.

"Iran has a difficult task ahead of it to rebuild these groups of associates and to devote more time, energy and resources - all of which it already has in short supply - to maintaining strong relations with them ," he said.

The vote in Iraq is not just another election. It is a test to see whether Iran can still influence the outcome in a region where its power is gradually weakening./REL