The impact of the Wagner group rebellion in Russia and the war in Ukraine

2023-06-27 19:48:20, Kosova & Bota CNA

The White House says it is "too early" to understand the impact of the weekend's dramatic events in Russia on the course of the war in Ukraine, or on international relations in general. But analysts say the Wagner group's rebellion exposed Putin's weaknesses and was a threat he did not expect.

Over the weekend, Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin halted the march of his fighters just 200 kilometers from Moscow and accepted an offer from the Kremlin to leave for Belarus. This, in effect, could neutralize him and his mercenaries.

This event was interpreted differently in Washington.

"I can't say that what happened over the weekend will make any big difference in the bigger issues. We'll have to see how things play out," National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said.

He said President Joe Biden was kept updated hour by hour on events in Russia over the weekend. And on Monday, President Biden answered a critical question:

"We have made it clear that we were not involved in these events. We had nothing to do with it. This is part of a war within the Russian system," he said.

In a speech on Monday, Mr. Putin appeared to question President Biden's comments.

"It was precisely this result, fratricide, that Russia's enemies, the neo-Nazis in Kiev, their Western clients and national traitors, wanted," he said.

Analyst Leon Aron told VOA that one thing is clear about recent events.

"I think the friendship between them is over. The main question is whether Putin can forgive Prigozhin. The Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko, did not make any move without first consulting Mr. Putin. So, whatever guarantee he gave to Mr. Prigozhin may not have any value," he said.

Can Ukraine benefit from turmoil in Russia?

"Of course, this may create some new opportunities, but we should not rush. We should use them if they match the plan that Ukraine has already laid out," says General Philip Breedlove, former commander of US forces in Europe.

Ukrainian officials say the Wagner Group rebellion gave Ukraine an advantage and exposed weaknesses in Putin's leadership.

"Today the world saw that Russia's bosses do not control anything. Nothing at all. Complete chaos. A completely unpredictable situation," said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Analysts predict more unrest within Russia.

"I am convinced that this is not the end. This is the first act of the coming Russian upheaval. For Putin, the threat appeared where he least expected it, from the "war camp," analyst Volodymyr Fesenko told VOA.

While Ukrainians question Prigozhin's motive for the uprising and what happened behind the scenes, many analysts believe it came at the right time during Ukraine's counteroffensive against Russian forces./ VOA