A crushing loss
The prediction must be made before the elections are held ...

The counting process is coming to an end, bringing us an even clearer map, not only for the distribution of mandates, but also the distribution of votes and precisely those votes that the opposition lacks . With a very good campaign, with a very ambitious program, Berisha's opposition was a suitable offer in a campaign with tallava, with çyrykë, with bylmezë, with Zegjine and so on.
Beyond this, citizens did not choose lower taxes, higher salaries, or a more developed business, but the Socialists have won and it seems that the difference is over 200 thousand votes between the Democratic Party and the Socialist Party.
The Democratic Party and the Alliance for a Greater Albania lack, first of all, the votes of the SMI. It seems clear that the PL, formerly the SMI, is a non-existent party with its leader in prison . A party that in 2021, under the leadership of Monika Kryemadhi, received over 100 thousand votes, but only 4 mandates.
Everything was because of the electoral formula and it is precisely this formula that has damaged the Democratic Party, as the emergence of small parties has caused its votes to be fragmented. Just as the SMI is missing, the Alliance for a Greater Albania and the Democratic Party are missing the votes of the PDIU, which once had 50 thousand or 70 thousand votes . Those votes are not.
Shpëtim Idrizi is himself on the open lists of the DP, with the hope that he will enter Parliament. We will now see the votes in the Tirana Region, but he has “sold” the party. In Fier, Tirana or Vlora, where this party claims a large majority of votes, they have not gone to PDIU candidates, but have been forgiven, donated or sold to the socialists. So, in addition to the electoral formula, we have a party that no longer exists and a party that has been “sold” to Edi Rama with evidence.
It is enough to read the result. Lulzim Basha has about 20 thousand votes that are right-wing votes. Adriatik Lapaj is going over 60 thousand votes , the votes of emigrants are still to be counted and in each district there seems to be a third or fourth force. Agron Shehaj's Mundësia Party is also going around 60 thousand votes and if you take these two parties together with their trend and together with Lulzim Basha they have gone approximately 150 thousand votes at this moment , they could go even more.
Këto janë vota të munguara të koalicionit Aleanca për Shqipërinë Madhështore dhe të Partisë Demokratike. Pra, leximi i rezultatit na tregon se tri parti të vogla po shkojnë mbi 150 mijë vota, të cilat i mungojnë PD-së. Gjithashtu po të shohim partitë e tjera, ku përfshihet edhe LZHK e Dash Shehit, janë rreth 10 mijë vota dhe PSD e Tom Doshit, e cila ka shkuar mbi 50 mijë vota.
Në total të këtyre votave ne shohim që partitë e djathta shkojnë rreth 200 mijë vota. Këtu po përjashtojmë PSD-në e Tom Doshit dhe Lëvizjen Bashkë të Arlind Qorit që po i konsiderojmë vota të majta. Këto 200 mijë vota i mungojnë totalit prej rreth 500 mijë votash që ka marrë Partia Demokratike dhe ASHM deri në këto momente, duke pritur që të dalë rezultati final me votat e emigrantëve, një pjesë e të cilave janë bllokuar.
Pra, faktorët janë shumë të thjeshtë. E para, dy aleatët kryesorë të PD-së, LSI dhe PDIU, në këtë fushatë nuk kanë ekzistuar. PL, dikur LSI, duket një parti tashmë e shkërmoqur dhe PDIU një parti e fëlliqur pazaresh që është “shitur” tek Edi Rama dhe ky është fakt.
Shohim partitë e reja, si e Lapajt dhe Mundësia e Shehajt, të cilat kanë bërë kërdinë në vota. Edhe pse parti të reja, shkojnë rreth 150 mijë vota së bashku me partinë inekzistente të Lul Bashës, por që çuditërisht ka rreth 20 mijë vota në të gjithë Shqipërinë. Mandat vetë Luli nuk do të marrë, por sërish nuk ka humbur sepse ai që ka humbur është Endri Hasa, kryetari i Koalicionit Euroatlantik. Pra, fakti i dytë janë partitë e reja dhe njerëzit e dalë nga brenda PD-së, siç është rasti i Lulzim Bashës, Dashamir Shehit, Agron Shehajt dhe partia e re e Adriatik Lapajt, që duket se e kanë “pluguar” mirë votën gri dhe pakënaqësinë ndaj qeverisë.
Partia Socialiste i ka ruajtur votat e saj, ajo ka një shumë nga 700 mijë deri në 800 mijë vota që i përsëriten çdo palë zgjedhje, asgjë më shumë sesa kaq. Ka ruajtur votat që ka pasur dhe ka marrë atë që i takon në emigracion.
Kurse Partia Demokratike nuk ka votat e LSI-së dhe PDIU-së në koalicion dhe votat e saj ia kanë “ngrënë” Lapaj, Agron Shehaj, Lulzim Basha, Dashamir Shehi dhe disa parti të tjera të vogla, të cilat duket që janë të djathta dhe po t’u mbledhësh votat e çojnë Partinë Demokratike mbi 700 mijë vota.
Ndaj dhe humbja e demokratëve nuk duket të jetë thjesht dhe vetëm për shkak të përballjes kokë më kokë me socialistët, por dhe përballja me një realitet të ri, të partive të reja, disa të dala dhe nga trupi i saj, që kanë mundur të sigurojnë një hambar votash duke e “sakatuar” partinë berishiste, duke i lënë asaj 52, ndoshta deri në 54 mandate, dhe duke i dhënë Edi Ramës një mazhorancë thuajse kushtetuese.
In fact, such a victory, so deep, in the fourth mandate, did not do any good to Edi Rama himself, let alone the opposition . On the other hand, what can already be read from the result is that the Socialists have a secure majority, they have been able to preserve and collect their votes, while the Democratic Party has fewer mandates, has fewer votes, because as we mentioned above, it lacks the votes of its allies, the political reality of the new parties and in the end the opposition boxes do not seem empty.
In total, the Socialists may have a small difference of 50,000 votes at the national level, but the opposition's ballot boxes are "shattered", while Edi Rama and Rilindja have them in one bag , which has also made the difference as to why there is that number of mandates.
The prediction must be made before the elections are held ...
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