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Misleading election polls/Here are the facts

2025-04-30 09:33:00, Editorial CNA

Many media outlets in Albania have started to conduct polls, to report preliminary results with classic formulas. So far, the most serious one is the one conducted by “Euronews”, which actually has the experience and has known Albanian voters for years. Also Noto on “News 24”, but also other polls like the one by “Report TV” and “Top Channel”.

They are reported day after day, results are given, winners, losers and so on are announced . In fact, in essence, if you look at these polls, taking into account the media where they are given, media paid by incinerators, beneficiaries of Albanian public taxes, government servants, propaganda, beneficiaries of public property, etc., shadows of suspicion are immediately cast, but in any case there is a deviation in the major object of these polls and this has to do with another fact. The most important. The participation for the first time of emigrants, that is, of the Diaspora, who vote in Albania.

Television in partnership with incinerators announces election poll
April 21, 22:51

After 34 years of democracy, immigrants will have the right to vote from Australia to the USA, China or Japan, where they are registered and there are not a few, but about 250 thousand voters, out of about 1.5 million who vote. More precisely, out of 1 million and 662 thousand Albanians who voted in Albania in 2021.

Misleading election polls/Here are the facts

But this does not include immigrants, despite the fact that we have a participation of around 46% and this has to do with those whose names are on the voter lists, so people who are in emigration are also present on the voter lists, but not all of them have come.

For the first time now we will have votes mainly from immigrants pouring in from Greece or Italy, who can vote by mail. Also, they may have chosen to come to Albania again. If you look at the figures and the margins of error that the companies that conduct the surveys report, with simple logic, they fall.

Why are these polls falling?

Because according to the data we have today from the CEC, about 216 thousand envelopes have been sent, 216 thousand voters, who are about 15-20% of the voter list in a given district.

Meanwhile, the error given by the companies conducting the surveys is 2-4%.

So, we conduct a survey in a specific city, with samples, with an error of 2-4% , when it is expected that, for example, in Tirana, 6.2% of the envelopes sent have currently arrived, i.e. about 15,200 votes. Meanwhile, in the Tirana District, 52,400 ballots have been sent by the CEC to voters.

Misleading election polls/Here are the facts

Piepoli poll on Report Tv

So, it's more than one mandate in Tirana. The same thing is with Durrës, around 12 thousand envelopes have been received, while around 25 thousand registered ones have been sent to the region.

In Korça, there are about 20,600 approved people and the same number of envelopes have been delivered, representing 8.4% of voters, 1 mandate.

So, the polls have a margin of error, which is many times lower than the votes that will come from immigrants, two or three times. So, if the error is 2-4%, there are districts where the list has 10-15% of voters who come from the diaspora and in the meantime the vote is being held.

How can you say that my margin is 2 or 4%, while I have no idea how 10, 15 or 20% of the list will vote?

What could happen?

The votes of the emigrants may come and be in great favor of the Socialist Party and enable it to have an even more secure victory in the districts where there are doubtful points , although Korça or some other district is sold as such, which have traditionally had a leftist stance. The votes may also come in favor of the opposition and create a wave and bring down the government. Because, as the Prime Minister has declared, we have 71 mandates for sure, yes 76 or 78.

If a mandate falls in Korça, a mandate falls in Shkodra, mandates fall in Durrës, mandates fall in Tirana, from the votes of emigrants, which in total are a very large figure, but they should not be taken on a national scale. The figures should be taken according to each district.

Poll on News 24

It could create a tsunami for the opposition and bring down the government. Not without reason, if we look at the articulations of Berisha and the opposition, or Agron Shehaj's Mundësia Party, or Llapaj and others, their eyes are very much on the Diaspora.

They look at it more clearly in terms of voter turnout. Okay, the polls show a trend, but when they give the margins of error, there may be some errors because they have been doing it for years, but today you have a factor that goes from 15-20% of voters in a district that you don't include in these polls at all.

The funniest thing is when the media says we did a national survey and it turns out that a party has this many percent, but this has no electoral value.

You could conduct a survey across Albania, ask 3,000 people, and the SP would get 51%.

But it may happen that in a certain district like Shkodra or Lezha, which have also had right-wing profiles, or Durrës, there may be a reversal of the result with the votes of immigrants, where the vote is divided by plus or minus one.

Poll on News 24

There are certain regions with a very large number of immigrants, such as Shkodra, Lezha, Korça, Gjirokastra, Vlora, Durrës. Tirana also has many registered.

Poll on News 24

Therefore, these polls have errors, especially with the terms they use, that the error is not very large and on the other hand, to justify any possible bluff, they have found a solution. They introduce an answer by giving the movement in a certain district 2 mandates.

Let's take the Korça Region as an example.

It says SP by 5-6, DP by 4-5, but here the difference is two mandates, which is 20% of the votes in the Korça District.

So, the margin of error is not 2-4%, but many times higher. On the other hand, the same story is happening with Tirana, the same story with Vlora. Although Vlora is more solid and traditional on the left, as is Fier, where it is claimed that the socialists can go beyond the 10th mandate or in Elbasan where they will attempt the 9th mandate.

Poll on News 24

The issue of immigrants and their vote could overturn these mandates, or on the other hand secure them without any discussion, but the figures provided by polling companies are misleading in themselves.

If all the data on immigrants were read, they might be closer to the truth, but considering that immigrants are voting for the first time, which is about 250 thousand votes, in each district they go with a percentage difference above the electoral threshold.

So, there are votes from emigrants that go beyond 1 mandate for each district. In Korça, there are enough registered voters to make a difference for two mandates . In Tirana , there are enough registered voters to make a difference for 4 or 5 mandates .

Therefore, the emigrant vote, no matter how distributed it is, or even with the trend given by the companies that make the calculations, there is still much to understand about the electoral reality in Albania, despite a possible trend where it seems that the majority is more solid or stands ahead of the opposition./ CNA