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Five names dominate the world of artificial intelligence today: Dario, Demis, Elon, Mark, and Sam.
They have become so famous that their name alone is enough to identify them. Politicians and the media follow their every statement with attention. ChatGPT by Sam Altman and the company OpenAI counts over 900 million users per week. Anthropic, the company of Dario Amodei, has developed models so advanced that they have raised serious concerns among policymakers about their capabilities in cyberattacks. Demis Hassabis, the head of AI research at Google, has also won the Nobel Prize for his scientific work. Elon Musk, the founder of xAI and owner of several other companies, remains the richest man in the world. Meanwhile, Mark Zuckerberg, with Meta, has built the most popular family of "open-source" models in the West and is investing billions to catch up with the technological race.
In a very real sense, these five men hold the fate of Western civilization in their hands. The US military already uses their own artificial intelligence tools, although some of them – like Altman and Musk – are more enthusiastic about this collaboration than others, like Amodei. Some economists believe that AI will significantly accelerate global economic growth. Others warn of the loss of millions of jobs. There are also those who fear that the technology could pose an existential threat to humanity. Not since the splitting of the atom has a technology caused so much anxiety and debate.
The fact that so much power is concentrated in the hands of a few is troubling, especially when it comes to figures as unpredictable as Musk or opportunistic as Altman. However, the history of Western capitalism shows that this is nothing new. In many cases, a small group of people have been crucial in bringing a new technology to the masses, not necessarily by inventing it, but by making it usable and widespread. And in the process, they have amassed extraordinary power.
Railroads changed the way people moved. Oil fueled industrial capitalism. Steel allowed the construction of modern cities. Automobiles created mass consumption. Banks brought credit to a global scale. The Internet monopolized humanity's attention. All of these technologies enriched the world, but they also transformed social norms.
Shumë njerëz mendojnë se miliarderët janë të mbivlerësuar, madje edhe parazitë të sistemit. Në fund të fundit, progresi teknologjik është rezultat i punës së miliona njerëzve dhe jo i një individi të vetëm. Askush nuk shpiku i vetëm çelikun apo internetin. Megjithatë, fitimet më të mëdha përfundojnë në duart e pak personave. Kjo ka ushqyer zemërimin popullor ndaj super të pasurve dhe sloganin se “çdo miliarder është një dështim i politikave publike”.
Por historia sugjeron një tjetër këndvështrim. Shpesh, ishin pikërisht këta magnatë që e kthyen një shpikje në revolucion ekonomik. Një studim i vitit 2023 nga Universiteti i Torontos argumenton se Henry Ford dhe modeli i tij “Model T” shpjegojnë pse amerikanët ishin të parët që adoptuan masivisht automobilët. Një tjetër studim nga Universiteti i Çikagos nënvizon rolin e “sipërmarrësve transformues” në kthimin e inovacionit në rritje afatgjatë ekonomike. Me pak fjalë, prosperiteti shpesh ka nevojë për figura të tilla.
Për të kuptuar më mirë se si krahasohen magnatët e AI me titanët e së kaluarës, “The Economist” analizoi 11 valë teknologjike në SHBA gjatë 150 viteve të fundit – nga hekurudhat te interneti – dhe identifikoi pesë figurat kryesore që kontrolluan dhe popullarizuan secilën teknologji.
Sipas analizës, njeriu më i fuqishëm ekonomik në historinë moderne amerikane rezulton Henry Ford. Pasuria e tij arrinte mbi 1% të GDP-së amerikane dhe kompania e tij punësonte rreth 0.15% të popullsisë amerikane në vitin 1925. Për më tepër, Ford kishte kontroll pothuajse total mbi kompaninë. Ai jo vetëm që pasuroi veten, por ndryshoi mënyrën e jetesës së shoqërisë amerikane. “Model T” u bë simbol i automobilit për masat dhe transformoi ekonominë e konsumit.
Në listën e titanëve modernë renditen edhe Jeff Bezos dhe Elon Musk. Bezos, themeluesi i Amazon, renditet i katërti falë një kompanie që punëson mbi një milion amerikanë dhe vlerësohet me triliona dollarë. Musk, nga ana tjetër, e ka fituar pozitën kryesisht falë Tesla-s dhe SpaceX, më shumë sesa për AI.
Ndërkohë, Sam Altman, Dario Amodei dhe Demis Hassabis renditen më poshtë. Arsyeja është se laboratorët e AI kanë relativisht pak punonjës dhe drejtuesit e tyre nuk kanë kontroll absolut mbi kompanitë, siç kishin dikur Ford apo Vanderbilt. OpenAI, për shembull, drejtohet nga një bord që madje e shkarkoi përkohësisht Altman në vitin 2023.
Megjithatë, inteligjenca artificiale është ende në fazat e para të zhvillimit. Potenciali i saj për të transformuar industri të tëra – nga argëtimi te mbrojtja ushtarake – mund të bëjë që magnatët e AI të arrijnë kulmin e fuqisë së tyre vetëm pas shumë vitesh.
History also shows that many of these titans have been strange and controversial figures. Ford was anti-Semitic and used his newspaper for propaganda. Rockefeller was obsessed with saving money. Vanderbilt believed in communicating with spirits. Steve Jobs followed extreme diets. In this context, Musk's conspiracy theories or Zuckerberg's "robotic" behavior don't seem so unusual.
But with new technologies have always come new risks. In the early days of railroads, many scientists thought that humans could not handle high speeds. Automobiles brought fatal accidents. Electrification automated factories and eliminated entire professions. Even AI today is raising fears of job losses and the extreme concentration of economic power.
Ultimately, history shows that the relationship between the state and the tycoons is always tense. Rockefeller's Standard Oil was broken up by the US Supreme Court in 1911. Microsoft was threatened with being broken up in 2000 for monopoly. And as artificial intelligence transforms the global economy, it is possible that governments will once again step in to limit the power of the new tech titans.
In theory, capitalism is presented as a decentralized system. In practice, its most important moments have often been led by powerful, almost autocratic individuals. Perhaps the people leading the AI ??revolution today will not necessarily be the new Rockefellers or Fords. But history suggests that such a figure is very likely to emerge soon. / The Economist
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