A spy in Washington is helping the Russians, but Ukraine's counterattack will succeed

2023-04-14 07:51:00, Blog Paolo Mastrolilli

A spy in Washington is helping the Russians, but Ukraine's counterattack

Illustrative photo

"A domestic spy, possibly recruited by the Russians, is releasing secret documents on the Ukraine War to demoralize Kiev and divide allies. However, soon there will be a counterattack and it will be successful."

Kurt Volker, former CIA analyst, former US ambassador to NATO and White House envoy for Ukraine, is the right man to interpret the leaked classified documents, which describe a troubling state of affairs Ukrainians at the front.

How do you judge this event?

It is very disturbing. It looks like a big "leak" of information like Wikileaks a few years ago. It is serious in its content, which reveals what the Pentagon thinks about the war, its allies, Russia's movements, but also because it reveals the sources and methods of gathering intelligence data.

Another debunker like Edward Snowden?

Of course it has to be a person within the US administration. I would be surprised if it turns out that this information has been hacked. But I believe that someone inside copied them.

Could it be a disillusioned member of the intelligence community?

We don't know, it's speculation, but that's what I suspect.

Did he act on his own initiative, or was he recruited and paid by the Russians?

We have no evidence that this operation was directed by a foreign power. But it seems very likely.

Was it not appropriate for Moscow to keep the information to itself, not publishing it in the media?

You should consider the possible goals of this fall. If Russia is behind this operation, the main goal is to demoralize the Ukrainians, showing that the US doubts them and Kiev's military capabilities. Washington believes that the Ukrainians will have more trouble counterattacking than they think in Ukraine, and that is the reason for their release.

Apart from demoralizing Ukrainians, what are the worst damages?

Disclosures about sources and methods of intelligence collection. It appears that we have sources in the Russian military who have access to a lot of information. The risk is that Moscow will conduct an investigation to understand where they come from, technology or people, and arrest them. And this can lead to the disruption of some vital sources of information.

What damage do "leaks" cause at the operational level?

To be honest not much. We will again see a powerful Ukrainian spring offensive. Not immediately, but after a few weeks. Because first the weather conditions have to change, the terrain needs to dry out and the Ukrainians have to take delivery of the new weapons.

Ofensiva nuk ishte e menjëhershme, prandaj ka kohë për rregullime të mundshme. Tanket, artileria, dhe një mbrojtje ajrore më e mirë do t’i ndihmojnë ukrainasit. Ata janë në një pozicion të mirë për të rimarrë territore të rëndësishme midis pranverës dhe verës.

Pra, a do të jenë ata në një pozicion më të mirë për të hyrë në negociata?

Nuk jam i sigurt. Unë nuk mendoj se Putini ka ndonjë interes për të negociuar. Ukrainasit do të rimarrin më shumë territore, do të jenë në një pozicion më të mirë. Por nuk mendoj se ata janë gati të nisin negociata serioze me Moskën.

Pra do të kemi një ngërç në fushën e betejës, por me kushte më të mira për Kievin?

E saktë.

A nuk krijon kjo strategji përçarje në aleancën perëndimore?

Nuk e besoj. Franca, dhe ndoshta Gjermania, besojnë ende tek një marrëdhënie e ardhshme me Rusinë. Ata nuk mund të ushtrojnë presion tek ukrainasit për negociata, por duan që të shohin fillimin e tyre. Megjithatë, ata anashkalojnë faktin që Putini është i përfshirë personalisht në luftë dhe nuk ka ndërmend të tërhiqet.

Atëherë dokumentet e dekonspiruara nuk krijojnë probleme me aleatët?

Gjatë administratës Obama, mësuam se agjencitë tona po përgjonin celularin e kancelares gjermane Merkel, gjë që pati ndikim. Edhe në këtë rast, do të ketë efekte me Izraelin, Korenë, ndoshta dhe me të tjerë.

A nuk mundet që shqetësimi për municionet dhe mbrojtjen ajrore të përshpejtojë dërgesat e armëve në Ukrainë?

The United States is doing its best. The timing of their deployment depends on the desire not to cause an escalation that could lead to a frontal collision between the US, NATO and Russia, but also on the need to keep weapons to ourselves. However, the current US administration has done a lot to help Ukraine in every way.

Can the Europeans speed up with their help?

They are slower. But the problem is that they have very little military equipment. And this situation is the result of decades of minimal investment in defense./ Adapted from CNA.al