US-Denmark clashes over Greenland/ NATO considers creation of "Arctic Guard" to ease tensions

2026-01-16 14:02:00, Aktualitet CNA

US-Denmark clashes over Greenland/ NATO considers creation of "Arctic

One possible way to ease the current political tensions between Denmark and the United States over the future of Greenland could be to establish a NATO-led mission called "Arctic Guardian."

This idea was born when the ambassadors of the military alliance gathered in Brussels on January 8 to discuss the issue of Greenland, the Danish island, after the White House expressed interest in the United States acquiring it, even not ruling out military intervention to achieve this goal.

NATO has already established two similar missions in 2025: first “Baltic Guard,” in response to numerous underwater sabotage attacks in Northern Europe, and then “East Guard,” which was created shortly after a major Russian drone incursion occurred in Poland.

These two "guards" are still ongoing. They are also considered major successes, according to NATO officials who spoke to Radio Free Europe (RFE/RL) on condition of anonymity.

But could something similar happen around and perhaps within Greenland?

Belgium's Defense Minister, Theo Francken, has publicly supported the idea, while London and Berlin are increasingly open to it.

At the meeting in Brussels, there was consensus that NATO should increase its engagement in the Arctic region.

"Canada has been shouting for years about the need to increase efforts in the High North, so we can't say that Washington is the first to bring this to the table," said a European diplomat.

Seven of the eight so-called Arctic countries are members of NATO, excluding Russia. And while the waters around Greenland are not currently filled with Russian and Chinese ships, that could change as Arctic ice melts rapidly and new sea lanes open up.

NATO's Supreme Allied Commander (SACEUR) and top US general in Europe, Alexus Grynkewich, recently stressed at a military conference in Sweden that Russian and Chinese ships "are not studying seals and polar bears."

He added that the ships "are conducting bathymetric studies and trying to understand how they can counter NATO capabilities above and below the sea. This is something that could grow very quickly, and we need to be vigilant and ready."

At the same time, Grynkewich added that any NATO mission at this time is "premature."

Speaking in Berlin earlier this week about a possible "Arctic Guard" mission, Germany's Defense Minister Boris Pistorius also stressed that such an initiative would take months.

However, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte is engaged in talks with Washington about how the alliance can increase its commitment, one way or another.

European diplomats have told REL that the "Arctic Guardian" initiative would perhaps refute the argument that Greenland should belong to the United States and that it would prove that Europe can cope with two fronts simultaneously: Russia in the east and Russia and China in the Arctic.

"In many ways, this is also about burden-sharing," one of them said, adding that a possible scenario could include aerial and maritime surveillance by Europeans, and an increased US troop presence in Greenland.

The United States has 200 personnel at a base in Greenland, engaged in ballistic missile early warning and space surveillance. During the Cold War, however, the island had up to 10,000 American troops spread across 17 bases.

A "loaded rifle"

This was based on a 1951 agreement between Copenhagen and Washington, which allows the United States to have military assets, including bases, for as long as NATO exists. This treaty remains in force and places no restrictions on the US military presence, although it still requires Danish consent, which it would likely give.

This would also pave the way for the US to use Greenland in its "Golden Dome" missile defense program, which US President Donald Trump has mentioned when talking about the giant island.

What European countries would do would be to focus on protecting the airspace and sea lanes of what is known as the “GIUK gap,” meaning the vast area between Greenland on one side and Ireland and the United Kingdom on the other.

This gap has been described as a "loaded rifle" facing the United States because it is an entry point for actors like Moscow and Beijing to carry out various actions, from underwater sabotage to land invasions, according to one source.

The countries likely to contribute are mainly the United Kingdom and France, but also countries such as Denmark, Italy, Norway, the Netherlands and Spain, as they all have naval assets.

This, of course, would require several types of ships, notably cruisers and frigates, but also submarines and especially icebreakers. Together, the alliance has only about 40 of these, fewer than Russia, although there are efforts to produce more.

The alliance's defense chiefs are expected to discuss this in more detail when they meet in Brussels on January 21-22, and then again when NATO defense ministers gather in the Belgian capital on February 12.

Practical obstacles

However, there is also hesitation within the alliance about whether the “Arctic Guard” mission is feasible. There are many practical obstacles. For example, it would take hundreds of ships to cover such a large area, including vessels that supply the military ships.

Apart from the Nordic countries and Canada, there are few troops experienced in operating in harsh Arctic conditions. Therefore, the current Danish-led operation, “Operation Arctic Resilience,” in and around Greenland involves troops from Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Norway.

And, while not everyone has to contribute, everyone must give their consent to embark on such a mission.

What about Americans, will they agree with this?

At the NATO ambassadors' meeting on January 8, Denmark and the United States agreed that this is a bilateral issue, for now.

This prompted a meeting in Washington on January 14 between the foreign ministers of Denmark, Greenland, and the United States, hosted by US Vice President JD Vance.

Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen stressed after the meeting that the United States had not changed its position on Greenland, but also added that a high-level working group of American and Danish officials would be established to discuss the issues in the coming weeks.

In Brussels, this is seen as a sign that there may be a "deal" that suits everyone, with an expanded role for NATO.

While there are fears of a military intervention, most of those REL spoke to still see this as "impossible" and believe the US president is using the same strong negotiating tactics he used when securing a 5 percent defense spending commitment from all allies at the Hague summit last year.

Now it's about Europeans spending more and faster, and not just focusing on their eastern flank. /REL