The impact of early elections in Germany on aid to Kiev

2024-11-13 15:32:47, Kosova & Bota CNA

The main political parties in Germany have agreed to hold a general election in February, after the collapse of the governing coalition earlier this month.

As "Voice of America" ??correspondent Henry Ridgwell reports, these elections may have a greater impact on military aid to Ukraine, while Europe is preparing for a second term of US President-elect Donald Trump.

Germans will head to the polls on February 23, following the collapse of the three-party government coalition last week. Chancellor Olaf Scholz has said that he will again be the candidate of the Social Democrats.

But the main opposition Christian Democrats have a huge lead in the polls. Their leader, Friedrich Merz, says that elections should be held as soon as possible.

"Let me remind you that we do not have a federal budget for 2025," he said.

The three-party ruling coalition collapsed after disagreements over debt increases to finance next year's budget, including the provision of military aid to Ukraine.

Berlin is the second-largest donor of military aid to Kiev after the United States, donating about $11 billion since the start of the Russian offensive in February 2022. The outgoing government had planned to cut aid to just over four billion dollars next year.

"It is a bad time for Ukraine and Europe. Germany will be preoccupied with itself for several months, before we have a new government" , says Mattia Nelles from the German-Ukrainian bureau.

Elections in Germany are held just weeks after the inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump.

"The worst-case scenario that scares many people in Berlin and Kiev is a new Trump administration taking power in January, cutting or ending aid to Ukraine and forcing the German government, the weakened Scholz government with the current parliament to increase the funds for Ukraine", says Mr. Nelles.

Also unclear is the impact that Mr Trump's future presidency will have on European security, including plans for US troops and weapons such as long-range Tomahawk missiles, says analyst Marina Miron.

"Another thing that can be canceled is the deployment of the Tomahawk system in Germany. So, we may have a situation where Trump follows an anti-globalist agenda, encouraging NATO countries to invest more in defense," says expert Miron from King's College in London.

Europe has frozen about 200 billion dollars of Russian assets, after Moscow's attack against Ukraine. Proceeds from the frozen assets are being used to help fund arms for Kiev. Some experts say it is time for these assets to be completely seized.

"Europe has 200 billion dollars of frozen Russian assets in the vault. I think the new Trump administration will push the Europeans to go further. This is welcome news from the Ukrainian side, not only for obtaining loans and credits through frozen Russian assets, but for the confiscation of the assets themselves. This is something that is supported by many people in Germany," says analyst Nelles.

Chancellor Scholz led Germany's efforts to end dependence on cheap Russian energy. But analysts say this has increased inflation and damaged confidence in Europe's biggest economy.

At the same time, analysts say Germany is facing the consequences of decades of underinvestment in its armed forces, an issue that must be addressed by the next government./ VOA