"Good cop, bad cop"/ Washington and Brussels in opposite directions on Belarus

2025-12-19 20:20:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

"Good cop, bad cop"/ Washington and Brussels in opposite directions on

Recent moves from Washington and Brussels show that diplomatic channels are moving in opposite directions regarding Belarus, highlighting a deepening divide among allies over how to address Europe's security.

On one side of the Atlantic Ocean, the United States is engaging with Minsk and the authoritarian leader, Aleksandr Lukashenko, easing sanctions in exchange for the release of political prisoners, including 123 people who were freed last weekend.

This is in stark contrast to what is happening in Brussels, where European Union officials are continuing to impose restrictive measures targeting Lukashenko, a staunch ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

A new line of communication

Supporters of the steps taken by the administration of US President Donald Trump to open dialogue with Minsk say this is a clear strategy to open another line of communication with the Kremlin, which has relied on Belarus' support in the war against Ukraine.

"Your president [Lukashenko] has a long history with President Putin and has the ability to advise him. That is very helpful in this situation," Trump's envoy to Belarus, John Coale, said after talks with Lukashenko that led to the release of the prisoners, noting that the Belarusian leader may be able to change Putin's mind about ongoing talks to end the war in Ukraine.

"Of course, President Putin may accept some advice and not others. This is a way to facilitate the process," he added.

But critics fear that years of coordinated pressure on a state that has seen a brutal, often deadly, crackdown on civil society are being undone. They say even limited diplomatic contacts could lend legitimacy to Lukashenko's regime.

“For the EU, copying Washington’s approach would be strategically wrong: unlike the US, the EU shares a border with Belarus, faces immediate security risks from Russia’s military presence there, and has already invested significantly in supporting Belarusian democratic forces,” said Giselle Bosse, a professor at Maastricht University.

"What might serve the US's short-term diplomatic goals would undermine the EU's long-term, values-based strategy," she wrote recently.

Lifting of US sanctions

Trump surprised many when he spoke with Lukashenko by phone in August, shortly before his summit with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Alaska.

This was followed by the lifting of sanctions on the Belarusian airline Belavia, meaning that the US government allows all US entities and individuals to do business with the national airline. At the same time, Minsk announced the release, through a presidential pardon, of 31 Ukrainian citizens who had been held in Belarus. This was one of a number of prisoner releases over the past year./dw