How might long-range missiles affect the Ukraine war?

2024-11-18 07:54:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

US officials say President Biden has given Ukraine the green light to use long-range missiles supplied by Washington to strike deep inside Russia.

Washington had previously refused to allow such attacks using US-made ATACMS missiles because it feared they would escalate the war.

The major policy shift comes two months before President Joe Biden hands over power to Donald Trump, whose election has raised fears about the future of US support for Kiev.

Why has the US allowed Ukraine to use long-range missiles inside Russia?

Ukraine has been using the Army's Tactical Missile System, more commonly known as ATACMS, on Russian targets in occupied Ukrainian territory for more than a year.

But the US has never allowed Kiev to use the missiles inside Russia – until now.

Lockheed Martin ballistic missiles are some of the most powerful yet delivered to Ukraine, capable of traveling up to 300 km (186 miles).

Ukraine had argued that not allowing such weapons to be used inside Russia was like being asked to fight with one hand tied behind its back.

The policy change is said to be in response to North Korea's recent deployment of troops to support Russia in the Kursk border region, where Ukraine has occupied territory since August.

Strengthening Ukraine's hand militarily – so it is intended – could give Ukraine leverage in any peace talks that may lie ahead.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has not yet confirmed this action. But he said on Sunday: "Attacks are not made with words... The missiles will speak for themselves."

What effect will missiles have on the battlefield?

Ukraine will now be able to strike targets inside Russia, most likely first around the Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces hold over 1,000 square km of territory.

Ukrainian and American officials expect a counterattack by Russian and North Korean troops to retake territory in Kursk.

Ukraine could use ATACMS to defend against attack, targeting Russian positions including military bases, infrastructure and ammunition storage.

The supply of missiles probably won't be enough to turn the tide of war. Russian military equipment, such as aircraft, have already been moved to airfields further inside Russia pending such a decision.

But the weapons could give Ukraine an advantage at a time when Russian troops have gained ground in the country's east and morale is low.

"I don't think it will be decisive," a Western diplomat in Kiev told the BBC, requesting anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.

"However, it is a late symbolic decision to raise the stakes and demonstrate military support for Ukraine.

"This could increase the cost of the war for Russia."

There are also questions about how much ammunition will be provided, said Evelyn Farkas, who served as deputy assistant secretary of defense in the Obama administration.

"The question is, of course, how many missiles do they have? We've heard that the Pentagon has warned that there aren't that many of these missiles that they can make available to Ukraine."

Farkas added that the ATACMS could have a "positive psychological impact" on Ukraine if they were used to hit targets such as the Kerch Bridge, which connects Crimea to mainland Russia.

The US authorization will also have a further effect: enabling the UK and France to give Ukraine permission to use Storm Shadow missiles inside Russia. The Storm Shadow is a Franco-British long-range cruise missile with capabilities similar to the American ATACMS.

Could it lead to an escalation of the war?

The Biden administration had refused for months to authorize Ukraine to strike Russia with long-range missiles for fear of escalating the conflict.

Vladimir Putin has warned against allowing Western weapons to be used to strike Russia, saying Moscow would consider that to be "direct participation" by NATO countries in the war in Ukraine.

"This would fundamentally change the very essence, the nature of the conflict," Putin said in September. "This means that NATO countries, the USA and European countries, are fighting with Russia."

Russia has previously set "red lines". Some, including the provision of modern battle tanks and fighter jets to Ukraine, have since passed without triggering an outright war between Russia and NATO.

Kurt Volker, a former US ambassador to NATO, said: "By limiting the range of use of American weapons by Ukraine, the US was unjustifiably imposing unilateral restrictions on Ukraine's self-defense."

He added that the decision to limit the use of ATACMS was "completely arbitrary and made out of fear of 'provoking'" Russia.

"However, it is a mistake to make such a change public, as it gives Russia advance notice of possible Ukrainian attacks."/ CNA